AL Central Preview

Chicago White Sox

One thing we can all agree on about the White Sox is that they aren’t boring.  The outspoken and entertaining Ozzie Guillen returns as manager, while GM Kenny Williams has never been one to stand pat when he needs to improve the club, and this offseason was no exception.  He got the big bat he needed when he lured massive lefty Adam Dunn away from Washington with a $56 million contract to be the DH.  He may strike out a ton, but hitting 40 homers is always within reach and moving to U.S. Cellular Field should help his power numbers even more.   

First base is still manned by Paul Konerko, a fan favorite who is entering his 13^th season with the South Siders.  He had a tremendous rebound season in 2010 and is under contract for three more years.  The middle infield will be manned by 2B Gordon Beckham, who struggled in his second season but seems primed to bounce back, and SS Alexei Ramirez, who is a solid hitter and plays good defense.

In the outfield, LF Juan Pierre continues to steal bases in bunches, CF Alex Rios provides a wealth of power and speed, and RF Carlos Quentin should hit plenty of homers, provided he can avoid the injury bug. 

The usually solid pitching staff will be especially important in order to challenge for the division title.  LH Mark Buehrle continues to provide a steady presence in the rotation and fellow lefty John Danks is one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball.  The right-handers will be the key to the rotation.  Jake Peavy’s shoulder health is still unclear, and Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson are talented yet inconsistent arms in the back of the rotation. 

After losing closer Bobby Jenks to Boston, Guillen will turn to a pair of hard-throwing left-handers in save situations.  Matt Thornton was an All-Star setup man in 2010, while 21-year old Chris Sale raced to the big leagues just months after being drafted and held his own in a short trial. 

Guillen has another talented team to manage and winning the division is not out of the question if injuries are avoided. 
Projected finish: 2^nd

Cleveland Indians

What a terrible time to be a fan of Cleveland sports.  The Browns finished with a 5-11 record, the Cavaliers have lost LeBron James and quite a few games this season, and the Indians are coming off of their second consecutive poor season.  Unfortunately for Tribe fans, a third straight losing season appears imminent. 

The Indians finished 12^th in the AL in runs scored last year, and the offense still appears short a few bats.  CF Grady Sizemore’s return from a pair of injury-plagued seasons will be interesting to watch, as he was one of the best players in the league before those injuries.  If he returns to form, he could serve as trade bait later in the season.  One player the Indians will not be trading anytime soon is RF Shin-Soo Choo, who has emerged as an exciting talent with power, speed, and a tremendous left arm.  Youngsters Michael Brantley and Trevor Crowe will compete for the third outfield spot. 

Another bright spot in the offense is switch-hitting catcher Carlos Santana, who was having a terrific rookie season before suffering a season-ending knee injury.  He could quickly emerge as one of the best catchers in baseball before the end of 2011.  For the offense to improve, the Tribe need healthy and effective seasons from veteran DH Travis Hafner, 1B Matt LaPorta, and SS Asdrubal Cabrera.

 The pitching doesn’t look much better.  RH Fausto Carmona had a nice 2010 campaign after two straight subpar seasons and will serve as the ace.  RH Carlos Carrasco showed promise during a late-season trial, and he should play a bigger role in the rotation this year.  The Indians will look to young right-handers Justin Masterson, Mitch Talbot, and Josh Tomlin to provide some innings as well. 

Luckily, if the Tribe make it to the 9^th inning with a lead, they should be in decent shape, as RH Chris Perez did a nice job as the closer last season and has the stuff to hold on to the role. 

Manager Manny Acta shouldn’t be expected to turn this club into a contender this year.

Projected finish: 4^th

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers learned the hard way this past week that sometimes one little mistake can cover up a series of good occurrences.  The good (or at least the productive) was their splash of signings early this winter.  The bad came on Wednesday when it was announced that 1B and AL MVP runner-up Miguel Cabrera had been arrested for DUI.  He has had similar issues with alcohol before, but it was believed that he had beaten the problem.  Nobody knows how this will affect Cabrera or the team going forward, but the Tigers learned last season how valuable Cabrera is to the middle of the lineup.

 He’ll be joined in the middle of the order by switch-hitter Victor Martinez, who was signed away from Boston, and he will DH, catch, and could spell Cabrera at first as well.  The Tigers resigned RF Magglio Ordonez and will hope he stays healthy, as he was having a nice season before breaking his ankle in July.  CF Austin Jackson did an admirable job as a rookie leadoff man and is still expected to be an important part of the lineup.  Utility man Carlos Guillen and SS Jhonny Peralta will also need to provide offense for the Tigers to take a step forward. 

The pitching will also need to bounce back after a slightly disappointing season.  RH Justin Verlander had another outstanding year in 2010, and he is extremely reliable at the top of the rotation.  Fellow righty Max Scherzer was dominant in the second half.  RH Rick Porcello suffered the dreaded sophomore slump last season but is expected to rebound in his third year.  Brad Penny, yet another righty, joins the rotation from St. Louis, and though health is always a concern with him, he still has very good stuff. 

The bullpen is rich in power arms, with RH Jose Valverde returning as the closer and offseason signing Joaquin Benoit taking over as the primary setup man. Right-handers Ryan Perry and Joel Zumaya will serve as quality middle relief. 

It remains to be seen if Cabrera’s incident will distract the club, but veteran manager Jim Leyland is known as one of the best in the game, and he should be able to move the team along. 

Projected finish: 3^rd

Kansas City Royals

Trading two of your best players, including the face of the franchise in RH Zack Greinke, is always a clear sign of a rebuilding project, and the Royals just crossed that step off their to-do list this offseason.  Luckily for them, they have the best farm system in baseball, and their wave of outstanding prospects should all hit the big leagues between the end of 2011 and 2013. 

Unfortunately for them, they still have to play the 2011 season.  Offensively, the Royals actually finished second in the AL in hits in 2010, but also finished tenth in runs scored.  Nobody will confuse this lineup for Murderer’s Row.   OF and leadoff hitter David DeJesus was traded to Oakland, and it is unclear who will hit atop the lineup.  It could be CF Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Greinke trade.  1B/DH Billy Butler had another fine season in 2010 and will be counted on to drive in more runs in 2011. 

The rest of the lineup is filled with disappointments or retreads.   Alex Gordon hasn’t lived up to all his hype, but he could play left field.  Jeff Francoeur should play right field, and Melky Cabrera will get outfield chances as well.   In the infield, Alcides Escobar takes over at shortstop after coming over from Milwaukee.  He provides solid defense and plenty of speed.  Mike Aviles returns and will probably start at third base, but he will likely move to second once lefty power-hitting prospect Mike Moustakas is ready. 

The starting rotation was a liability last year, and will be even worse now that Greinke is gone.  LH Jeff Francis was signed to provide a veteran presence and could serve as the ace, while RH Luke Hochevar has some upside.  The Royals are in good hands at closer, as RH Joakim Soria is quietly one of the best relievers in baseball. 

Manager Ned Yost is probably hoping he can hang onto his job past this season, because 2012 could be the start of some good baseball in Kansas City.  2011 likely won’t be quite as exciting. 

Projected finish: 5^th

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have served as a model of consistency since Ron Gardenhire took over in 2002.  They have won six division titles during that period, but they have also struggled come playoff time, making the League Championship Series just once.   This year, Minnesota will again put a formidable club on the field. 

One of the big keys for the Twins will be how 1B Justin Morneau fares in his return from a July concussion and the resulting post-concussion syndrome.  He was having a phenomenal year before the injury, and it is still unclear how quickly he can get back on the field.  Joe Mauer had another fine season at the plate in 2010, even though Target Field limited his power numbers, and the Twins will continue to monitor his time at catcher in order to keep him healthy. 

DH Jim Thome proved he wasn’t washed up with a very solid year hitting mostly against right-handed pitching, and Michael Cuddyer moved from the outfield to first base after losing Morneau and did a fine job.  CF Denard Span returns to set the table at the top of the order, LF/DH Delmon Young had a long-awaited breakout season, and RF Jason Kubel provides lefty power.  

The pitching staff is solid but unspectacular. The Twins were thrilled to see the re-emergence of LH Francisco Liriano as an ace after missing 2008 due to injury and struggling in 2009.  RH Carl Pavano was resigned after testing free agency, and the Twins can only hope he repeats his terrific 2010 season.  Also returning are steady right-handers Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, and LH Brian Duensing, a pleasant surprise after moving from the bullpen to the rotation at mid-season. 

The closer situation will be interesting to keep an eye on.  Former All-Star Joe Nathan missed the entire 2010 season, and the team traded for fellow All-Star Matt Capps before the trade deadline, who was just as good for the Twins as he was with Washington.  Capps is expected to hold the job until Nathan proves he is back to full strength. 

Gardenhire has won two straight AL Central titles, and his squad is the favorite to win it again. 
Projected finish: 1^st

So to recap, here’s the projected finish for the AL Central.

            1. Minnesota

2. Chicago

3. Detroit

4. Cleveland                                                                      

            5. Kansas City

Leave us your feedback and let us know if you agree or not.  Next week we’ll take a look at the AL West.  See you then.

AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have had a rough go of it recently.  They haven’t had a winning season since 1997, and unfortunately for them, the AL East isn’t the easiest division to take a step forward in.  But give them credit; they’re making every effort to improve, especially on offense, where they finished next to last in the AL in runs scored. 

Their biggest offensive addition came late when Vladimir Guerrero signed a one-year deal.  He rejuvenated his career with Texas last year and will be the primary designated hitter.   The Orioles also signed steady veteran Derrek Lee to play first base, and added SS J.J. Hardy and 3B Mark Reynolds in trades.  Hardy has struggled with injuries the past couple seasons and is looking to bounce back, while Reynolds provides serious right-handed power but also has a propensity to strike out.  The Orioles possess a talented outfield, as LF Luke Scott provides a power bat from the left side, CF Adam Jones has back-to-back solid seasons under his belt and RF Nick Markakis is a doubles machine who looks to improve his homerun totals.

The pitching staff is still a question mark.  LH Brian Matusz looks ready to take a big step forward in his second full season and could become a legitimate ace in the future.  RH Jeremy Guthrie has been a solid starter the past four years, and newly acquired righty Justin Duchscherer could make an impact in the rotation if healthy.  Koji Uehara took over the closer role during the second half and did a good job, but he will be challenged for the role by big righty Kevin Gregg. 

The Orioles seemed to show signs of life once Buck Showalter took over as manager in late July.  There is some potential here, but in this stacked division, 2011 probably won’t be the year the Orioles challenge the others.

Projected finish: 5^th

Boston Red Sox

What a difference an offseason makes.  The Red Sox struggled with injuries all last season, and the lineup showed a complete lack of continuity, but still managed to score the second most runs in the AL.  It’s a big deal to add one All-Star to your starting lineup during the winter, but Boston managed to pick up two All-Stars to add serious depth. 

Carl Crawford is one of the most exciting players in baseball, and he left division rival Tampa Bay to come to Boston with a $142 million contract.  He’ll step into left field and hit near the top of the lineup.  Adrian Gonzalez was acquired in a trade from San Diego, where he quietly became one of the game’s best first basemen.  His left-handed power will stand out in hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  Adrian Beltre left this winter to sign with Texas, and Kevin Youkilis will slide from first base to third base to replace him.  If the Red Sox can get full seasons from Youkilis, 2B Dustin Pedroia, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury, and DH David Ortiz proves he can still mash, this balanced lineup will put up a ton of runs once again.

  The starting rotation is in good shape at the top, with LH Jon Lester emerging as an ace and RH Clay Buchholz putting together an outstanding 2010 campaign.  RH Josh Beckett suffered a back injury and struggled when he did pitch, and if he bounces back, Boston has another ace on the mound.  Better seasons from fellow right-handers John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka would also be a big boost, as Lackey was a slight disappointment in his first year with Boston and Matsuzaka has suffered some struggles since his 18-3 season in 2008.  

RH Jonathan Papelbon was shaky at times as the closer last season, but still has the job, with a pair of right-handers, Daniel Bard and newly acquired Bobby Jenks, ready to step in if needed. 

All in all, manager Terry Francona has to be extremely excited about his bunch, as their offseason pickups put them in World Series contention.

Projected finish: 1^st

New York Yankees

You probably forgot about these guys this winter.  This wasn’t your typical Yankees offseason where hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on free agents.  Top targets Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford signed elsewhere, and left the team scrambling to find other players.

 The lineup, which didn’t need much tinkering to begin with, remains strong.  SS Derek Jeter had an uncharacteristically down year which brought about questions of decline, and the Yankees need him to regain his form at the top of the order.  The middle of the lineup is still a force, with 1B Mark Teixeira and 3B Alex Rodriguez continuing to put up big numbers and 2B Robinson Cano emerging as the best second baseman in the game.  The outfield is a nice balance of speed and power.  LF Brett Gardner is one of the fastest runners in the league, RF Nick Swisher is a switch hitter who launched 29 homers in 2010 and Curtis Granderson has power and covers a ton of ground in center field.  Jorge Posada moves from catcher to DH, and Russell Martin was signed to take over at catcher, with stud prospect Jesus Montero waiting in the wings to catch or DH if needed.

The pitching staff took a hit when steady veteran Andy Pettitte recently retired.  LH CC Sabathia is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and RH Phil Hughes stepped up to win 18 games in 2010.  After that, question marks remain. Righty A.J. Burnett struggled mightily last year and has not lived up to the $82.5 million contract he signed before the 2009 season.  Despite this, he still has electric stuff and a return to old form would be a huge boost to the rotation, which is rounded out by unproven arms.

 In the bullpen, RH Mariano Rivera continues to dominate hitters at 41 years old and has shown little signs of aging, and the Yankees added All-Star closer Rafael Soriano to serve as a potentially dominant right-handed setup man.  Joe Girardi still has a formidable club to manage, and if the back of the rotation steps up, the Yankees will still contend to win the division.

Projected finish: 2^nd

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays put together a nice three-season run, reaching the World Series in 2008 and winning the division in 2010, but this season doesn’t look like it will be as kind.  Being a small-market team left them no chance of resigning star LF Carl Crawford, who signed with Boston, and led to them trading RH starter Matt Garza and not resigning 1B Carlos Pena, who both ended up with the Chicago Cubs.  The result: this club will look quite different than it has the past three seasons.  

One key lineup piece remains in 3B Evan Longoria, who has quickly become a star in his first three seasons.  B.J. Upton returns with his terrific power/speed combination, and if he cuts down on his strikeouts he will re-emerge as one of the league’s best center fielders.  The offense added two aging veterans in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, who will each split time between left field and DH.  Both players disappointed last season and are in the decline of their careers, but each should still provide some help offensively. 

Losing Garza hurts the starting rotation, but the Rays have enough depth to survive the move. LH David Price was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award in 2010, and at age 25, he has many more All-Star caliber seasons ahead of him as the ace of this staff.  RH James Shields has posted two consecutive subpar seasons, but he set a career high in strikeouts in 2010, so a bounce back year is definitely possible.  Rookie righty Jeremy Hellickson steps into Garza’s old rotation slot and proved in a brief late season call-up that he is ready to pitch in the majors.  The bullpen is extremely unproven after Rafael Soriano signed with the Yankees, and it is unsure who will close games. 

Joe Maddon has done wonders since he took over in Tampa Bay, but if he can keep this team at the top of the division again, he deserves even more praise.

Projected finish: 4^th

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays quietly had a solid 2010 season, winning 85 games, but still finished in fourth place in this loaded division.  The Rogers Centre was especially kind to the Blue Jays, a homer-happy team that led the majors by a long shot with a whopping 257 homeruns.  31 of those came from longtime center fielder Vernon Wells, who was traded to the Los Angeles Angels along with his massive contract.  

The offense is still powered by Jose Bautista, however, who came out of nowhere to lead the majors with 54 homeruns.  He will hit in the middle of the lineup and could spend time at third base and in the outfield.  Look out for bounce back seasons from 2B Aaron Hill and DH Adam Lind, who still slugged 26 and 23 homers respectively in down offensive years. 

OF Travis Snider possesses some power from the left side, and the team added a righty power bat in the Wells trade in OF Juan Rivera.  Rajai Davis will start in center field after being acquired from Oakland, and his speed adds a new dimension to the offense. 

The pitching staff did not miss a beat in 2010 even after Roy Halladay was traded to Philadelphia.  There is no true ace, but the rotation is full of young, quality arms, both left-handed and right-handed.  LH Ricky Romero is slowly emerging into a very good pitcher, while RH Brandon Morrow piled up strikeouts and showed signs of dominance in the second half. Brett Cecil, another lefty, quietly won 15 games, and much-hyped rookie Kyle Drabek adds another right-handed option to the rotation. 

In the bullpen, the Blue Jays have options at closer, although for now, RH Frank Francisco appears to be the favorite.  He served as a setup man for Texas in 2010 but he has closing experience.  Fellow right-handers and newcomers Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch also have closed before and provide quality depth. 

New manager John Farrell knows pitching and has a good staff to work with.  This team could surprise some people in 2011 but a jump into the top two of the division is unlikely.

Projected finish: 3^rd

So to recap, here’s the projected finish for the AL East.

1. Boston

2. New York

3. Toronto

4. Tampa Bay

5. Baltimore

If you agree, that’s great.  If not, let me know.  Feedback is a good thing.  We’ll be back next week with a preview of the AL Central.  See you then.

Introduction

          Welcome to The Big Fly.  This blog will take a look at the 2011 Major League Baseball season from the viewpoint of the typical diehard fan.

          Before the season starts, I'll do a weekly preview of each division where I will look at each team, assess their offseason moves and predict where they will finish in the division.  After I look at all six divisions, I'll identify some possible contenders in each league for MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year.  Once the season begins, I'll write a weekly recap of what we saw in the last week of action and what we should be looking for as the season progresses.  I'll also add occasional entries throughout the week for important breaking news or commentaries.

          My hope is that this blog becomes a quick, easy way to find a recap for everything that happens in baseball. Be sure to leave feedback each week, as your opinions are always welcome. I'm looking forward to a great 2011 season. I'll be back next week with a preview of the American League East. See you then.