AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have had a rough go of it recently.  They haven’t had a winning season since 1997, and unfortunately for them, the AL East isn’t the easiest division to take a step forward in.  But give them credit; they’re making every effort to improve, especially on offense, where they finished next to last in the AL in runs scored. 

Their biggest offensive addition came late when Vladimir Guerrero signed a one-year deal.  He rejuvenated his career with Texas last year and will be the primary designated hitter.   The Orioles also signed steady veteran Derrek Lee to play first base, and added SS J.J. Hardy and 3B Mark Reynolds in trades.  Hardy has struggled with injuries the past couple seasons and is looking to bounce back, while Reynolds provides serious right-handed power but also has a propensity to strike out.  The Orioles possess a talented outfield, as LF Luke Scott provides a power bat from the left side, CF Adam Jones has back-to-back solid seasons under his belt and RF Nick Markakis is a doubles machine who looks to improve his homerun totals.

The pitching staff is still a question mark.  LH Brian Matusz looks ready to take a big step forward in his second full season and could become a legitimate ace in the future.  RH Jeremy Guthrie has been a solid starter the past four years, and newly acquired righty Justin Duchscherer could make an impact in the rotation if healthy.  Koji Uehara took over the closer role during the second half and did a good job, but he will be challenged for the role by big righty Kevin Gregg. 

The Orioles seemed to show signs of life once Buck Showalter took over as manager in late July.  There is some potential here, but in this stacked division, 2011 probably won’t be the year the Orioles challenge the others.

Projected finish: 5^th

Boston Red Sox

What a difference an offseason makes.  The Red Sox struggled with injuries all last season, and the lineup showed a complete lack of continuity, but still managed to score the second most runs in the AL.  It’s a big deal to add one All-Star to your starting lineup during the winter, but Boston managed to pick up two All-Stars to add serious depth. 

Carl Crawford is one of the most exciting players in baseball, and he left division rival Tampa Bay to come to Boston with a $142 million contract.  He’ll step into left field and hit near the top of the lineup.  Adrian Gonzalez was acquired in a trade from San Diego, where he quietly became one of the game’s best first basemen.  His left-handed power will stand out in hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  Adrian Beltre left this winter to sign with Texas, and Kevin Youkilis will slide from first base to third base to replace him.  If the Red Sox can get full seasons from Youkilis, 2B Dustin Pedroia, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury, and DH David Ortiz proves he can still mash, this balanced lineup will put up a ton of runs once again.

  The starting rotation is in good shape at the top, with LH Jon Lester emerging as an ace and RH Clay Buchholz putting together an outstanding 2010 campaign.  RH Josh Beckett suffered a back injury and struggled when he did pitch, and if he bounces back, Boston has another ace on the mound.  Better seasons from fellow right-handers John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka would also be a big boost, as Lackey was a slight disappointment in his first year with Boston and Matsuzaka has suffered some struggles since his 18-3 season in 2008.  

RH Jonathan Papelbon was shaky at times as the closer last season, but still has the job, with a pair of right-handers, Daniel Bard and newly acquired Bobby Jenks, ready to step in if needed. 

All in all, manager Terry Francona has to be extremely excited about his bunch, as their offseason pickups put them in World Series contention.

Projected finish: 1^st

New York Yankees

You probably forgot about these guys this winter.  This wasn’t your typical Yankees offseason where hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on free agents.  Top targets Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford signed elsewhere, and left the team scrambling to find other players.

 The lineup, which didn’t need much tinkering to begin with, remains strong.  SS Derek Jeter had an uncharacteristically down year which brought about questions of decline, and the Yankees need him to regain his form at the top of the order.  The middle of the lineup is still a force, with 1B Mark Teixeira and 3B Alex Rodriguez continuing to put up big numbers and 2B Robinson Cano emerging as the best second baseman in the game.  The outfield is a nice balance of speed and power.  LF Brett Gardner is one of the fastest runners in the league, RF Nick Swisher is a switch hitter who launched 29 homers in 2010 and Curtis Granderson has power and covers a ton of ground in center field.  Jorge Posada moves from catcher to DH, and Russell Martin was signed to take over at catcher, with stud prospect Jesus Montero waiting in the wings to catch or DH if needed.

The pitching staff took a hit when steady veteran Andy Pettitte recently retired.  LH CC Sabathia is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and RH Phil Hughes stepped up to win 18 games in 2010.  After that, question marks remain. Righty A.J. Burnett struggled mightily last year and has not lived up to the $82.5 million contract he signed before the 2009 season.  Despite this, he still has electric stuff and a return to old form would be a huge boost to the rotation, which is rounded out by unproven arms.

 In the bullpen, RH Mariano Rivera continues to dominate hitters at 41 years old and has shown little signs of aging, and the Yankees added All-Star closer Rafael Soriano to serve as a potentially dominant right-handed setup man.  Joe Girardi still has a formidable club to manage, and if the back of the rotation steps up, the Yankees will still contend to win the division.

Projected finish: 2^nd

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays put together a nice three-season run, reaching the World Series in 2008 and winning the division in 2010, but this season doesn’t look like it will be as kind.  Being a small-market team left them no chance of resigning star LF Carl Crawford, who signed with Boston, and led to them trading RH starter Matt Garza and not resigning 1B Carlos Pena, who both ended up with the Chicago Cubs.  The result: this club will look quite different than it has the past three seasons.  

One key lineup piece remains in 3B Evan Longoria, who has quickly become a star in his first three seasons.  B.J. Upton returns with his terrific power/speed combination, and if he cuts down on his strikeouts he will re-emerge as one of the league’s best center fielders.  The offense added two aging veterans in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, who will each split time between left field and DH.  Both players disappointed last season and are in the decline of their careers, but each should still provide some help offensively. 

Losing Garza hurts the starting rotation, but the Rays have enough depth to survive the move. LH David Price was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award in 2010, and at age 25, he has many more All-Star caliber seasons ahead of him as the ace of this staff.  RH James Shields has posted two consecutive subpar seasons, but he set a career high in strikeouts in 2010, so a bounce back year is definitely possible.  Rookie righty Jeremy Hellickson steps into Garza’s old rotation slot and proved in a brief late season call-up that he is ready to pitch in the majors.  The bullpen is extremely unproven after Rafael Soriano signed with the Yankees, and it is unsure who will close games. 

Joe Maddon has done wonders since he took over in Tampa Bay, but if he can keep this team at the top of the division again, he deserves even more praise.

Projected finish: 4^th

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays quietly had a solid 2010 season, winning 85 games, but still finished in fourth place in this loaded division.  The Rogers Centre was especially kind to the Blue Jays, a homer-happy team that led the majors by a long shot with a whopping 257 homeruns.  31 of those came from longtime center fielder Vernon Wells, who was traded to the Los Angeles Angels along with his massive contract.  

The offense is still powered by Jose Bautista, however, who came out of nowhere to lead the majors with 54 homeruns.  He will hit in the middle of the lineup and could spend time at third base and in the outfield.  Look out for bounce back seasons from 2B Aaron Hill and DH Adam Lind, who still slugged 26 and 23 homers respectively in down offensive years. 

OF Travis Snider possesses some power from the left side, and the team added a righty power bat in the Wells trade in OF Juan Rivera.  Rajai Davis will start in center field after being acquired from Oakland, and his speed adds a new dimension to the offense. 

The pitching staff did not miss a beat in 2010 even after Roy Halladay was traded to Philadelphia.  There is no true ace, but the rotation is full of young, quality arms, both left-handed and right-handed.  LH Ricky Romero is slowly emerging into a very good pitcher, while RH Brandon Morrow piled up strikeouts and showed signs of dominance in the second half. Brett Cecil, another lefty, quietly won 15 games, and much-hyped rookie Kyle Drabek adds another right-handed option to the rotation. 

In the bullpen, the Blue Jays have options at closer, although for now, RH Frank Francisco appears to be the favorite.  He served as a setup man for Texas in 2010 but he has closing experience.  Fellow right-handers and newcomers Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch also have closed before and provide quality depth. 

New manager John Farrell knows pitching and has a good staff to work with.  This team could surprise some people in 2011 but a jump into the top two of the division is unlikely.

Projected finish: 3^rd

So to recap, here’s the projected finish for the AL East.

1. Boston

2. New York

3. Toronto

4. Tampa Bay

5. Baltimore

If you agree, that’s great.  If not, let me know.  Feedback is a good thing.  We’ll be back next week with a preview of the AL Central.  See you then.