Guest Post #2: Brett Underwood

Welcome to The Big Fly.  This goes for me as well! My name is Brett Underwood, writer of The Dugout and Cameron White’s roommate.  Cameron was generous enough to allow me the opportunity to drop by on his blog and make a guest post.  Cameron has done a great job of giving you a season preview and providing a little insight on some of the standout players who could have big seasons. 

In this post, I am going to make some bold predictions.  When I say bold predictions, I mean that these things are not likely to happen, in fact, they probably will not.  They are, however, possible.  So here we go…

• Brian Matusz gets 20 wins and has an ERA under 3.50.

-          The Orioles have to win around 60 games this year, right? Why not win them when your most talented starter is on the mound?  This up-and-coming pitcher just turned 24 and already has a little over a year in the majors under his belt.

-          Matusz finished the season going 7-1 last season in August, September and 1 start in October.  I’m envisioning that momentum will carry into this 2011 season.

• Billy Butler will hit 30 home runs, drive in 110 runs and still hit .300 (this is assuming at least 110 guys get on base in front of him in that hideous Kansas City lineup).

-          I am a huge fan of Billy Butler.  He is beginning his 5^th season in the majors and he is primed for an explosion.  He surprised many with his 21 HR, 93 RBI season in 2009. 

-          The power numbers dropped slightly last season, but he cut back on his strikeouts and increased his walks.  He also jumped from a .301 batting average to .318 from 2009 to 2010.  This season, his 45 doubles from last year start carrying over the wall and the power numbers rise drastically.

•  Jimmy Rollins stays healthy! That is bold enough, but I’m also predicting that he makes a jump back towards the MVP type player he was in 2007.  With this jump will come 20 home runs, 40 stolen bases and a .280 batting average.

-          With Chase Utley’s health in question, there have come questions about this Phillies offense.  10 year veteran, Rollins, will step up and prove the doubters wrong. 

-          With the loss of some Utley home runs, Rollins is likely to run more than usual and try to find more ways to get on base.  Getting on base brings about confidence, and Rollins has shown that when he is healthy and confident, he is one of the best in the league. 

•   Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun combine for 80 home runs (that’s right, I said 80).

-          In the final year of his contract, Prince Fielder is now out to earn a paycheck.  He will also be turning 27 in May which has proven to be a peak year for many players.  Last year was arguably his worst in his 6 year career and he is a man (and a big one) on a mission.

-          Braun, also at the magical age of 27, has hit more than 30 homers in 3 out of 4 seasons (last year he hit 25), including 37 in 2008. This guy is a flat out star and one who you might find near the top of the MVP voting come seasons end.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates finish 4^th in the National League Central.

-          Go ahead and laugh now, this team is not far off.  While the starting rotation may not be up to par (I am sugar-coating that as much as possible), there is a lot of young talent in that lineup.   

-          Look for Andrew McCutchen to lead a young and determined bunch to somewhere around 70-75 wins, which will be good enough for a 4^th place finish.

• Gordon Beckham hits .300 with 25 home runs.

-          To be honest, the only reason I am putting this is because Cameron drafts him every year in our fantasy league, and the way I see it, at some point it will work out for him.

-          In 103 games in 2009, Beckham hit 14 home runs and proved that he has the ability to hit at the major league level.  This kid’s talent cannot be denied and it is only a matter of time before he starts to produce.  Hopefully for Cameron’s sake it is this year and it’s not another season where a fantasy pick is wasted on the White Sox second baseman.

• Miguel Cabrera does NOT get a DUI during the season!

-          That could possibly be the boldest prediction yet, but I am a big Miguel Cabrera fan and am pulling for him to step away from the alcohol.

• Mark Teixiera finishes top 3 in MVP voting.

-          If Teixiera could find some way to put together just an average April and May, there is no doubt in my mind he would finish near the top. 

-          Known for his slow starts, he always finds a way to hit 30+ home runs, drive in 100+ runs and hit close to .300 (excluding a horrid .256 last season).   Imagine what his numbers could be if he didn’t waste the first 2 months of the year. 

•  John Danks finishes top 3 in Cy Young voting.

-          Danks went a quiet 15-11 last season with a 3.72 Earned Run Average.  If you have not seen Danks pitch, you need to tune in for a game.  He has made a name for himself in the Windy City and it will not be long before the rest of the country realizes how good he is.

-          Barring he receives a little run support and the White Sox remain in the playoff race, don’t be shocked to see John Danks near the top of the charts in quite a few pitching categories.

•  The Dodgers represent the National League in the World Series.

-          With hitters in the middle of the lineup such as Ethier and Kemp, and starters on the mound such as Kershaw, Billingsley, and Ted Lilly, the Dodgers could make a run.

-          Last season was disappointing for the Dodgers, as Cameron mentioned in his NL West preview, but the talent is still there and the pitching could carry this team into the playoffs and possibly the World Series.

•  Yankees win the World Series.

-          Wait a second; Yankees winning is a bold prediction? That’s right!  The hype around the New York Yankees is not what it used to be as hated rival, the Boston Red Sox, made some major off-season moves.  There are questions surrounding the Yankees rotation and some of the key position players such as “Mr. November”, Derek Jeter. 

-          I am expecting a major trade or pick-up in the middle of the season, which puts the Yankees right back in the mix with the star-studded Red Sox.  Also, assuming the Yankees make the playoffs again, how can you pick against the Yanks in October?

•  For my last “bold prediction”… wait for it…wait for it…Charlie Sheen and Lindsay Lohan team up to create an Oscar Winning movie!

-          Why not? It appears that both are having some struggles right now, just get together and make a crazy movie.  I think it could be successful.

-          Okay, I lied; I am not seeing that one as a success.  I think this last one officially takes the crown for my “bold pick of the year” award.

Thanks again to Cameron for allowing me to make some bold (you can use the word “crazy” if you’d like) predictions on his blog.  Continue coming back to The Big Fly for more great baseball news with everybody’s favorite blogger, Cameron White.

Guest Post #1: Steffi Cook

This is a guest post from Steffi Cook, a member of my blogging class and the author of the blog Yellow Jackets Tennis, on the importance of being an unselfish team player.

Being part of a sports team is a very rewarding experience.  Whether you are competing on the professional level or are simply in a recreational league to have fun, you will gain an experience that will be very special and memorable for a lifetime.

Working on a team requires one to care about others besides themselves.  An individual can not go in with the mindset that they need to do the best only for their own benefit.  Their best efforts must be done for the entire team to experience, not only for themselves to prosper. 

Let's use a baseball situation.  If Rob is a pitcher, and is hungry for playing time, he most likely has the drive to want to pitch in a lot of games and get time on the mound.  However, if he knows his teammate Ryan is having a really good season filling the position and is helping the team significantly with his performances, he needs to accept that he may not get much playing time over him.  It isn't because he is necessarily a bad pitcher; he could be a real talent.  Nonetheless, if Ryan is a key factor in the team winning games, he needs to realize this and know he is the one that should be playing because he is helping the team be the best it can be. 

It would not do any good for Rob to sit around and complain about how he isn't seeing the mound.  He wouldn't be helping himself, and it surely wouldn't cause any good to the other guys.  The last thing the other players need to be thinking about and concentrating their efforts on is how Rob is upset he isn't getting to throw pitches.  The team mentality would go down and the main focus would not be on winning games.  It would be on stupid drama that is not beneficial to ANYBODY.  If Rob shows the utmost support for Ryan and his other teammates, it will help the team win as much as possible and be the most successful it can be. 

Positive energy is the key to success, especially in a team environment.  Do you use it when you are with your teammates?  Cameron, do you think that this same mentality is employed on the professional teams you discuss in your blog and on your own collegiate squad?

Playoff and Award Predictions

Welcome back to The Big Fly.  Over the past six weeks, we’ve given you a preview of each team and each division in baseball.  We hope you’ve enjoyed reading up on each team.  In this entry, we’ll recap our division winners, then make our playoff predictions and postseason award predictions.

AL Playoffs

·         AL East Champion: Boston Red Sox (AL Champion)

o   Even with the pitching questions, the offense went to another level with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. A definite World Series contender and arguably the most complete team in baseball.

·         AL Central Champion: Minnesota Twins

o   This is contingent on a healthy Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.  Even if these two miss time, the Twins always find a way to win games and stay in the divisional race.  Looking to get over the hump in the playoffs.

·         AL West Champions: Texas Rangers

o   Even without Cliff Lee, the starting rotation is solid and the addition of Adrian Beltre brings firepower to an already feared offense.  Lack of postseason experience is no longer a question.  Dangerous team once again.

·         AL Wild Card Winner: New York Yankees

o   Predictable? Maybe. The starting rotation definitely has questions, but the offense is too powerful to expect a serious drop off.  Always a scary club.

·         AL Playoff Dark Horses: Chicago White Sox, Oakland Athletics

o   It wouldn’t be surprising to see the White Sox win the Central or the Wild Card.  Solid at the plate and on the bump.  The Athletics only need their young pitchers to remain consistent all season to make a run in the West.

NL Playoffs

·         NL East Champion: Philadelphia Phillies

o   Dominant pitching staff will make this team tough to beat.  The lineup is productive but aging.  If the position players remain healthy, arguably the best team in the league.  But that’s a big if.

·         NL Central Champion: Cincinnati Reds

o   Don’t let last year’s quick playoff exit fool you.  This team is built for the long haul.  Best offense in the NL in 2010 and decent pitching staff will be enough to repeat.  This team will win the NL sometime soon.

·         NL West Champion: San Francisco Giants (NL Champion)

o   An extremely well-balanced club.  Offense won’t scare anyone but gets the job done, while the pitching staff will once again frustrate opposing hitters.  Very good chance to return to the World Series.

·         NL Wild Card Winner: Atlanta Braves

o   If the Phillies battle injuries, they could win the East.  Solid at the plate and on the mound but not great defensively.  Nobody will want to play them in the postseason.

·         NL Playoff Dark Horses: Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers

o   If the Giants suffer a letdown, the Rockies will make them pay provided they find some consistency.  The Brewers are all-in this season and their offseason pitching upgrades make them a feared squad.

World Series

·         Red Sox vs. Giants

o   This would be quite a series, which would match up baseball’s best offense with one of baseball’s best pitching staffs.  By this point, the Red Sox pitching staff will have answered any questions posed earlier in the season.  This will be the year where good offense defeats good pitching.

- Prediction: Red Sox in six games  

Postseason Awards

·         AL Most Valuable Player

o    1. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees

-  Cano really busted out in 2010, and he will continue to be a major run producer hitting in such a deep lineup.

o   2. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

-  Hitting in the middle of a powerful Boston lineup, Youkilis will set career highs in homers and RBI’s. 

o   3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

-  As long as he defeats his personal demons, the sky is the limit for his offensive numbers.

·         AL Cy Young

o   1.  Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

- He won’t be lacking for run support.  He’s one of the best lefties in the game, but this year, he joins the discussion about the best pitcher in baseball.

o   2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

-  He won it last year while winning 13 games, so if Seattle improves, his numbers could be even more frightening.

o   CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

-  The big guy is as consistent as they come.  Is always a threat to win 20 games with the team he has around him.

·         AL Rookie of the Year

o   1.  Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays

-  He pitched like an old veteran during his September call-up.  He still has a solid offense to score some runs for him.

o   2. Kyle Drabek, Toronto Blue Jays

-  Like Hellickson, will receive run support. Jays are excited about his potential.

o   3. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals

-  Still in the minors, but has the power potential to inject some life into the Royals’ season.

·         NL Most Valuable Player

o   1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

-  Extremely boring pick, but who cares?  Swirling rumors about his departure aren’t going to distract him because he’s that good.

o   2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies

-  If he avoids any early-season slumps and fluky injuries, don’t be shocked if he walks away with this award.

o   3. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers

-  In the walk year of his contract.  Hitters tend to do crazy things in their walk year.  Always a threat for 40 homers.

·         NL Cy Young Award

o   1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

-  Like Pujols, a bit of a boring choice.  But he’s the most consistent pitcher in baseball and he played the NL like a fiddle after moving over before last season.

o   2. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

-  He’s always in the discussion due to pitching in the slightly offensively-challenged NL West.  His nasty stuff doesn’t hurt either. 

o   3. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves

-  He’ll receive the run support in 2011 that was sometimes lacking last season.  This is the year he becomes an annual contender for this award.

·         NL Rookie of the Year

o   1. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

-  Won’t face too much pressure due to hitting near the bottom of a good lineup.  Braves are excited about his potential.

o   2.  Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

-  The Giants’ offense isn’t the most powerful, and Belt should force his way in early.

o   3. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

-  Still qualifies as a rookie.  Arguably some of the best stuff in the majors.  Could be closing by the end of the year.

We hope you’ve enjoyed our season previews as much as we’ve enjoyed researching them.  We’ve done our part to get you ready for the season, now it’s your turn to get ready by enjoying Opening Day.  For a baseball fan, it’s the best day of the year.  We’ll be back on Sunday to recap the opening weekend of Major League Baseball.  See you then.

 

NL West Preview

Arizona Diamondbacks

                The Diamondbacks suffered their second consecutive season in the NL West cellar in 2010.  The team fired manager A.J. Hinch in July and replaced him with Kirk Gibson, who returns as manager for 2011.  Arizona didn’t pursue any major free agents over the winter and will look to improve from within after brutal seasons both at the plate and on the mound.

                The offense led all of baseball with a staggering 1,529 strikeouts.  Despite this, the offense has some firepower.  RF Justin Upton was a slight disappointment in 2010, but this could have been due to injuries.  He still has massive upside even with the high number of strikeouts.  CF Chris Young had a very nice bounce back season after a brutal 2009 campaign, and like Upton, he provides the potential to hit homers and steal bases.

                2B Kelly Johnson also bounced back nicely in 2010 and does a nice job of getting on base and hitting for power.  SS Stephen Drew is not a star but does a lot of things well and serves as a very steady option near the top of the order.  C Miguel Montero missed time in 2010 but will hit some homers if he remains healthy.  Power-hitting Russell Branyan and former Yankee Juan Miranda are battling for the first base job. 

                The pitching staff had a rough time getting outs in 2010, and likely won’t wow anyone in 2011 either.  RH Ian Kennedy quietly had a decent campaign and should provide plenty of innings once again.  RH Daniel Hudson was outstanding after being acquired from the White Sox in July, and looks to take another step forward.  LH Joe Saunders has had success in the past but is inconsistent.  RH Armando Galarraga has won a rotation slot after being acquired from Detroit, and the Diamondbacks would love to see him come close to throwing the perfect game he almost threw last season.  RH J.J. Putz will serve as the closer, and he has dominant stuff although he hasn’t closed full-time in several years. 

                Gibson has some talent to work with in the desert, but expecting a winning season in 2011 is probably overly ambitious.

Projected finish: 5^th

Colorado Rockies

                Despite another solid campaign in Colorado, the Rockies finished in 3^rd in the NL West and missed out on their third playoff berth in four seasons.  Though the team did not sign any major free agents this offseason, the Rockies were not quiet by any means this winter.  Star SS Troy Tulowitzki signed a six-year, $120 million extension to remain with the team, while OF Carlos Gonzalez parlayed his breakout season into a seven-year, $80.5 million deal. 

                Tulowitzki is one of the most complete shortstops in all of baseball, and his contract ensures that he will anchor the middle of the lineup for years to come.  The same goes for Gonzalez, who blossomed in his first full season as a starter and is versatile enough to play any of the outfield positions. 

The rest of the order needs to emerge for the Rockies to make a run.  CF Dexter Fowler is poised for a breakout season atop the lineup assuming he can stay healthy.  He runs extremely well and is terrific defensively.  Longtime 1B Todd Helton is clearly on the downside of his career.  3B Ian Stewart has big power, but could begin the season on the DL and needs to cut down on his strikeouts.  Ty Wigginton was signed away from Baltimore to provide versatility and power.  Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs form a capable platoon in right field and will be counted on again for consistent production.   

The rotation is solid at the top but needs some stability at the bottom.  RH Ubaldo Jimenez was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in the first half of 2010, and has dominant stuff.  LH Jorge de la Rosa re-signed with the club after testing free agency, and is expected to contribute even more in 2011.  RH Jhoulys Chacin showed promise in his rookie season, and fellow RH Jason Hammel will be counted on to eat innings.  RH Huston Street anchors the bullpen when healthy, but he will be pushed by hard-throwing RH Matt Lindstrom, who was acquired from Houston.

Manager Jim Tracy should have another competitive bunch in 2011.  The Rockies are always a dangerous team and they will battle for the NL West title provided the injury bug avoids Coors Field.

Projected finish: 2^nd

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

                The 2010 season didn’t have a Hollywood ending for the Dodgers.  It actually ended with a sub-.500 record for the first time since 2005.  A mediocre pitching staff combined with a disappointing offense led to the down year in Los Angeles.  The winter was also rough on the team.  Manager Joe Torre stepped down, and to make matters worse, due to the divorce of the team’s owners and money being tied down, the team could not make any significant moves.

                A major reason why the offense suffered in 2010 was the underwhelming season turned in by CF Matt Kemp.  The future is still bright for Kemp, as proved by the fact he still hit 28 homers and stole 19 bases in a down season.  RF Andre Ethier put up another consistent season at the plate, and his power from the left side is crucial for a team that only hit 120 homeruns in 2010.  The success of the Dodger offense relies heavily on the production of Kemp and Ethier.

James Loney doesn’t have prototypical power for a first baseman, but he hit 41 doubles last season and hits right-handed pitching extremely well.  SS Rafael Furcal can still hit, throw, and run extremely well, but staying healthy is becoming a yearly issue.  Juan Uribe was signed away from San Francisco, and he provides power and versatility, though he will probably start at second base.

The pitching staff has the potential to be a bright spot for the Dodgers.  LH Clayton Kershaw has emerged as a legitimate ace at the age of 23.  He posted a 2.91 ERA with 212 strikeouts, and those numbers are attainable again.  RH Chad Billingsley bounced back well in 2010 after a rough 2009 season.  Veteran LH Ted Lilly quietly puts up very good numbers every year.  The rotation is rounded out by solid right-handers Hiroki Kuroda and Jon Garland.

The closer role will fall back in the hands of massive RH Jonathan Broxton, who got the save in the All-Star game, then proceeded to lose his job as closer.  He has the stuff to dominate, but he will have a short leash, as the Dodgers have many talented arms in the bullpen. 

New manager Don Mattingly has coached with the team for several years, and he has a talented team, but it will be interesting to see the club’s focus during 2011 after a tumultuous year.

Projected finish: 3^rd

 

San Diego Padres

                Not even someone with a crystal ball could have foreseen a 90-win season for the Padres in 2010.  They surprised everyone and missed the playoffs only after a loss on the last day to eventual World Series winner San Francisco.  The offseason was a tough one for the Padres, as hometown hero Adrian Gonzalez was traded to Boston in a deal that replenished the farm system. 

                Petco Park is a notorious pitcher-friendly park, and losing the team’s top power hitter in Gonzalez places a huge dent in the Padre lineup.  The team’s top returning hitters are 3B Chase Headley, who is solid but unspectacular, and RF Ryan Ludwick, who struggled after being acquired from St. Louis.  Power will be sorely needed from these two if the offense expects to come close to replacing Gonzalez.  The Padres are relying on a platoon of Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu to replace Gonzalez and provide serviceable numbers at a cheap price. 

The Padres are excited about the new-look middle infield.  2B Orlando Hudson was signed as a free agent to provide a good clubhouse guy and a solid all-around player.  SS Jason Bartlett comes over from Tampa Bay in a trade, and though his numbers took a hit in 2010, a rebound in offense coupled with good defense is expected.  CF Cameron Maybin and RF Will Venable are exciting young players who provide upside on offense, defense, and on the basepaths.

San Diego was home to one of the best pitching staffs in baseball in 2010.  RH Mat Latos put up fantastic numbers in his first full season, and he will be relied on heavily again.  LH Clayton Richard was quietly very effective without dominant stuff.  RH Tim Stauffer will be a full-time starter after a terrific 2010 season mostly in the bullpen.  The closer role is held in the steady hands of RH Heath Bell.  Bell has remained one of the best relievers in the NL even with trade rumors swirling around involving his name.  Fellow right-handers Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson serve as quality setup men for Bell.

Manager Bud Black won the NL Manager of the Year for his guidance of the Padres in 2010.  Unfortunately for him, the loss of Gonzalez will prevent the team from that kind of success in 2011.

Projected finish: 4^th

 

San Francisco Giants

                 The Giants enter the 2011 season with one question: Where do we go from here?  What a season it was by the Bay in 2010, as the Giants won 92 games and captured their first World Series title since 1954.  The team felt confident enough in the bunch that won the title that no major acquisitions were made over the winter. 

                The Giants won the title despite lacking star power on offense.  The closest thing to a star is C Buster Posey, who took baseball by storm in his rookie season, winning the NL Rookie of the Year award.  His potent bat and solid defense makes him a vital cog in the lineup.  1B Aubrey Huff was an under-the-radar signing last winter, but he hit 26 homers and was resigned this offseason.  3B Pablo Sandoval, the Kung Fu Panda, has lost weight this winter and looks to regain his offensive numbers from 2009 when he hit .330. 

                The outfield was full of unlikely heroes in 2010.  CF Andres Torres came from nowhere to put up fantastic all-around numbers at age 32, and he returns to bat leadoff.  LF Pat Burrell was released by Tampa Bay in May, then proceeded to hit 20 homers for the Giants.  Cody Ross was a postseason standout after being acquired from Florida, but he will begin the season on the DL.  Because of this, top prospect Brandon Belt could make the club at first base and shift Huff to the outfield.

                What more can be said about this pitching staff?  It’s one of the best in baseball.  RH Tim Lincecum couldn’t win his third straight NL Cy Young, but he put forth another phenomenal season in 2010 with 16 wins, a 3.43 ERA and 216 strikeouts.  RH Matt Cain dominated throughout the playoffs and is a tremendous option to have as the number two starter.   Left-handers Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner provide the Giants with more quality arms in the middle of the rotation.

                And then, there’s The Beard.  If you follow the talk show circuit, odds are you saw Brian Wilson on television once or twice this winter.  He emerged as one of the premier closers in baseball in 2010, and his popularity among baseball fans has skyrocketed due to his mid-90’s fastball, his prominent beard and his outlandish behavior. 

With Bruce Bochy as manager, the Giants don’t have to worry about having a letdown 2011 campaign.  This squad will remain focused and will again look to make a deep postseason run.

Projected finish: 1^st

 

So to recap, here’s the projected finish for the NL West.

1.       San Francisco

2.       Colorado

3.       Los Angeles

4.       San Diego

5.       Arizona

Give us feedback to let us know if you agree or disagree.  Our next article will look into playoff predictions and projected award winners.  See you then.   

NL Central Preview

Chicago Cubs

                 The Friendly Confines weren’t very friendly to the Cubs in 2010.  The team saw everything from injuries to inconsistencies and trades to total meltdowns at Wrigley Field last season.  It all proved to be too much to take for manager Lou Piniella, who resigned abruptly in August and handed to reins to Mike Quade.  Quade led the team to a 24-13 run after taking over, and did such a good job that he was handed the permanent job over the winter.    

                The offense looks to rebound after a disappointing 2010 campaign.  3B Aramis Ramirez battled injuries in June but had a tremendous second half and looks to carry that success over.  SS Starlin Castro emerged as a future star, hitting .300 as a 20-year old and playing terrific defense.  1B Carlos Pena signed a 1-year deal after struggling mightily with Tampa Bay last year, and he brings power from the left side. 

                The outfield is an interesting mix of excitement and frustration.  CF Marlon Byrd was an All-Star last season and will hit third in 2011.  Tyler Colvin hit 20 homers as a rookie but will probably split time in both left and right field.  LF Alfonso Soriano’s offensive production continues to decrease, and RF Kosuke Fukudome has been a disappointment since coming over from Japan, but he should still lead off.

                The starting rotation has the potential to be solid.  RH Carlos Zambrano struggled at the beginning of the season and was demoted to the bullpen, then was suspended for a dugout meltdown in June.  In the second half, he was dominant on the bump, and his effectiveness is crucial to the team’s success.  Veteran RH Ryan Dempster turned in another consistent season in 2010.  The Cubs acquired RH Matt Garza from Tampa Bay during the winter.  He threw a no-hitter in July and should be ever better now that he is in the National League.  Randy Wells and Carlos Silva are the leading candidates to finish out the rotation.  The bullpen is anchored by RH Carlos Marmol, who has made significant strides with his control, and RH Kerry Wood, who returns to Chicago where he spent the first ten seasons of his career. 

Quade looks to move the Cubs back toward contention in 2011, but it may take some time in an improved division.

Projected finish: 4^th

Cincinnati Reds

                The Reds put together a fantastic season in 2010, winning the division title with 91 wins and reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1995.  The offense led the National League with 790 runs scored, 1515 hits, and 188 homers, and the pitching staff was solid but not spectacular.  Despite getting swept in the Division Series by the Phillies (including being no-hit by Roy Halladay), the Reds have some momentum in the NL Central going into 2011 and look to repeat on top.

                1B Joey Votto was a deserving winner of the NL MVP Award.  All he did was take a leap to superstardom, finish second in the league with a .324 batting average, and finish third in the league with 37 homers and 113 RBI’s.  2B Brandon Phillips had another solid campaign in 2010, and should continue to hit homers and steal bases.  3B Scott Rolen found the fountain of youth and put together his finest season in four years in 2010.  He also won his eighth Gold Glove Award.

                The outfield is anchored by 23-year old RF Jay Bruce, who swatted 25 homeruns in 2010 and seems poised for a breakout season.  CF Drew Stubbs held his own in his first full season, hitting 22 homers and stealing 30 bases.  He moves to the top of the lineup where the Reds hope he cuts down on his strikeouts.  Jonny Gomes returns in left field, but he could lose time to Chris Heisey and Fred Lewis. 

                The pitching rotation has plenty of arms to choose from.  RH Bronson Arroyo had another solid season in 2010.  RH Edinson Volquez returned nicely from Tommy John surgery and should be ready to return to form.  Fellow RH Johnny Cueto is looking to become an ace, and he continues to improve.  The staff will be filled out by some combination of lefty Travis Wood and right-handers Homer Bailey and Mike Leake. 

In the bullpen, RH Francisco Cordero continues to pile up saves even though he rarely makes it look easy.  He will receive plenty of competition from flame-throwing LH Aroldis Chapman, who took the baseball world by storm after his late-season call-up due to his tremendous stuff. 

Manager Dusty Baker has the talent to remain atop the NL Central, and a deep playoff run is definitely within reach.

Projected finish: 1^st

Houston Astros

                The 2010 season was a tale of two seasons for the Astros.  The team limped into the All-Star break 17 games under .500, but proceeded to go 30-23 after the break.  So despite finishing 76-86 overall and finishing in 5^th place, the Astros entered the winter with reason to be optimistic about the 2011 season.

                Unfortunately for the Astros, the offense, which finished next to last in the NL in runs scored, is still below average.  They will experience their first full season without former standout Lance Berkman, who was traded in July and signed with division rival St. Louis this winter.  RF Hunter Pence will be counted on to carry the offense, as he has proven to be a very consistent hitter.  CF Michael Bourn won a Gold Glove in 2010 and provides serious speed to the leadoff spot.  LF Carlos Lee experienced a numbers decline and continues to regress defensively, but the Astros’ severe lack of power makes a bounce back season for Lee crucial. 

                The team is high on 1B Brett Wallace, who struggled a bit in his rookie season but shows promise at the plate.  3B Chris Johnson did a terrific job during the second half after being called up, but must prove he can succeed over a full season.  Veteran Bill Hall was signed to serve as a utility player but could earn everyday at-bats eventually.

                The pitching staff was quietly solid last season.  RH Brett Myers had an outstanding season in his first year in Houston, but he has been inconsistent over his career, so he still has something to prove.  LH Wandy Rodriguez struggled early but finished strong and will be a good source for strikeouts.  RH Bud Norris is the hardest thrower in the rotation but struggles with consistency.  LH J.A. Happ, on the other hand, doesn’t throw very hard but continues to get people out.  RH Brandon Lyon did a solid job in 2010 and will serve as the closer again.

                Manager Brad Mills deserves some credit for the way his team played in the second half of 2010, and he deserves even more credit if he can get the Astros into contention this season.

Projected finish: 5^th

Milwaukee Brewers

                The Brewers underwent their second consecutive sub .500 season in 2010, so this winter, GM Doug Melvin took matters into his own hands to get things back on track.  He hired Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke as manager, then acquired Kansas City ace RH Zack Greinke without giving up a fortune.  The Brewers are going for it all in 2011, which could be the last season for star 1B Prince Fielder in Milwaukee.

                Fielder is in a contract year and is looking for big money this winter, and Milwaukee may not be able to afford him.  He is still extremely dangerous, and though his offensive numbers were a bit down in 2010, he still led the majors with 114 walks.  The lineup is full of tough outs.  LF Ryan Braun remains a consistent source of batting average and power hitting in front of Fielder.  RF Corey Hart had a monster season in 2010 and the Brewers would love to see him hit 31 homeruns again.  2B Rickie Weeks blasted 29 homers as the leadoff hitter and finally stayed healthy for a full season.  3B Casey McGehee drove in 104 runs with all the productive players hitting in front of him.  The offense has the potential to put up big numbers and provide plenty of support for the pitching staff.

                The pitching staff received major upgrades this winter, including Greinke, the AL Cy Young in 2009.  He could see an improvement in his numbers with the move to the National League.  Also moving to the National League is RH Shaun Marcum, who was acquired from Toronto.  He had a terrific 2010 season despite missing 2009 after having Tommy John surgery.  These two newcomers join fellow RH Yovani Gallardo atop the rotation.  Gallardo struck out at least 200 batters for the second consecutive season in 2010 and has the stuff to do so again.

In the bullpen, RH John Axford came from out of nowhere to seize the closer’s job and performed very well.  RH Takashi Saito was brought in as insurance in case Axford does not replicate his success in 2010.

 Roenicke takes over a club that was built for a playoff run in 2011.  Expect the Brewers to remain in the division race and the Wild Card hunt all season long.

Projected finish: 2^nd

Pittsburgh Pirates

                The Pirates have to improve at some point, right?  The last time Pittsburgh fans saw a winning baseball team was in 1992 when Barry Bonds was manning left field.  2010 was the fourth consecutive season that the Pirates’ win total decreased from the season before.  Manager John Russell was fired during the offseason and former Colorado manager Clint Hurdle will replace him.  It was a typical Pirates winter as the team brought in some complementary players but made no major moves.

                The lineup contains a mix of exciting young players and some average veterans.  CF Andrew McCutchen has All-Star potential with his deadly combination of speed and power in the third spot in the lineup.  3B Pedro Alvarez will hit cleanup behind McCutchen.  He showed serious power in his first season in the bigs, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts and improve defensively. 

LF Jose Tabata runs well and is expected to hit leadoff.   2B Neil Walker learned the position on the fly with the Pirates, and he is a switch-hitter with some power.  Other than Tabata, all three players were drafted by the Pirates and provide the team with some exciting homegrown talent.

                Steady veteran Lyle Overbay was signed to play first base.  Right field will be split between Garrett Jones, who has big lefty power, and former Brave Matt Diaz, who kills left-handed pitching. 

                The pitching staff won’t exactly strike the fear into the hearts of hitters in the NL.  LH Paul Maholm is steady but unspectacular.  RH Kevin Correia comes over from San Diego and is also unspectacular.  RH James McDonald showed promise after being acquired from the Dodgers, and RH Ross Ohlendorf pitched well early in 2010 despite receiving little run support.  The bullpen lacks quality options as well.  RH Joel Hanrahan is the favorite to close games, but RH Evan Meek was outstanding in 2010 and will step in should Hanrahan struggle.

                Hurdle had success in Colorado and will get every chance to work with Pittsburgh’s young talent.  Even though 2011 may be another rough season, the future finally seems to be looking bright for the Pirates.

Projected finish: 6^th

St. Louis Cardinals

                 Despite another solid season in St. Louis, the Cardinals missed the playoffs in 2010, leaving them determined to get back to their fairly familiar spot atop the NL Central.  It was an interesting offseason for the Cardinals.  1B Albert Pujols couldn’t agree to a contract extension during the winter and enters a contract year.  Then, ace RH Adam Wainwright was ruled out for the season after an elbow injury.  The Cardinals need to push both occurrences aside quickly in order to succeed.

                Pujols is the face of the franchise, and letting him walk would be devastating, as he is unquestionably the best player in baseball.  In all ten of his seasons in St. Louis, he has hit .300, hit at least 30 homers and driven in at least 100 runs.  He is joined in the middle of the order by LF Matt Holliday, as consistent a player as you will find in baseball.  Veteran Lance Berkman was signed to play right field, which will be interesting since he has been injury prone and has played mostly first base recently.

                CF Colby Rasmus has star potential but needs to play every day to reach it, as he has struggled against left-handed pitching.  3B David Freese and new SS Ryan Theriot are solid complementary players.  C Yadier Molina is still the best throwing catcher in baseball and continues to improve offensively. 

                The pitching rotation takes a massive hit without Wainwright, who won 20 games with a 2.42 ERA in 2010.  Veteran RH Chris Carpenter is remarkably consistent and should have no problem handling the role of the staff ace.  LH Jaime Garcia had a fantastic rookie season and will be counted on even more heavily in 2011.  RH Jake Westbrook is a solid mid-rotation starter, but RH Kyle Lohse needs drastic improvement to keep his job.  RH Kyle McClellan is the favorite for the fifth-starter role. 

                RH Ryan Franklin is the closer and isn’t the most reliable guy out there, but has held onto the job nonetheless.  He could receive competition from hard-throwing RH Jason Motte, who continues to improve. 

                Manager Tony La Russa saw his odds of winning the division decrease heavily with the loss of Wainwright, but the Cardinals are still much too talented to be counted out. 

Projected finish: 3^rd

So to recap, here is the projected finish for the NL Central.

1.       Cincinnati

2.       Milwaukee

3.       St. Louis

4.       Chicago

5.       Houston

6.       Pittsburgh

Give us your feedback and tell us if you agree or disagree.  Next time we wrap up our division previews and take a look at the NL West.  See you then.

NL East Preview

Atlanta Braves

                The 2010 season found the Braves back in the playoffs for the first time since 2005.  The team fell to the Giants, the eventual World Series winners, in the Division Series.  Despite this, the Braves had a successful season and are expecting to contend once again.  One big difference: longtime manager Bobby Cox stepped down and handed the reins to former Florida manager Fredi Gonzalez.  The Braves also finally acquired the power-hitting righty bat they had sought for some time.

                2B Dan Uggla comes in from Florida in exchange for one of last season’s heroes in Omar Infante.  He brings some major juice from the right side of the plate and could hit cleanup.  Martin Prado moves to left field to make room for Uggla, and he has quietly become one of the more underrated players in baseball.  C Brian McCann remains rock solid at the plate, and RF Jason Heyward was in the Rookie of the Year race all season despite battling a thumb injury. 

For the Braves to compete in 2011, however, they have to answer some offensive questions.  First, longtime 3B Chipper Jones has to stay healthy.  He was having a terrific second half before suffering a knee injury in August.  Also, the team will learn if rookie 1B Freddie Freeman can handle playing every day.  The team is excited about his hitting ability and his defense.  Finally, CF Nate McLouth needs to bounce back in a big way after a horrendous 2010 season.  He could lose at-bats to former top prospect Jordan Schafer if he struggles again.

The pitching staff will once again be strong.  The rotation is heavy on right-handers, led by veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, who remain effective despite being in their mid-30’s.  Tommy Hanson has two terrific full seasons under his belt and could emerge as an ace in 2011, while Jair Jurrjens has been solid when healthy.  After Billy Wagner’s retirement, the closer job could go to LH Jonny Venters, who was dominant as a rookie in 2010, or RH Craig Kimbrel, who showed serious potential late in the season but needs to improve his control.

                Gonzalez is expected to be a similar personality to Cox, and that should help ease the transition at manager.  He inherits a very good team who will again push for the postseason.

Projected finish: 2^nd

 

Florida Marlins

                The 2010 season in Florida wasn’t lacking for entertainment.  Manager Fredi Gonzalez was fired in June not long after benching star SS Hanley Ramirez for a lack of hustle.  OF Chris Coghlan was lost for the season in July when he injured his knee in a post-game celebration.  Then, 2B Dan Uggla was traded to division rival Atlanta after the season ended.  Despite this, the Marlins finished a game under .500 last year and hope to improve in 2011.

                Ramirez returns at shortstop, and despite having his hustle questioned, nobody questions his offensive production.  He should remain at or near the top of shortstops in baseball.  1B Gaby Sanchez had a fine rookie season and will be a major cog in the offense again.  Coghlan moves to center field and will likely lead off.  Omar Infante was acquired from Atlanta in the Uggla trade, and he likely will be the everyday second baseman.  John Buck had a fine 2010 season with Toronto and is the new catcher. 

                Flanking Coghlan in the outfield corners are two young, exciting players.  RF Mike Stanton has enormous power potential, as shown by his 22 homeruns in 100 games in 2010.  If he cuts down on his strikeouts, he could be a monster offensively.  LF Logan Morrison is widely recognized as an advanced hitter for his age.  The continued progress of these two young players will be vital to the Marlins’ success.

                The success of the pitching staff heavily relies on the right shoulder of ace Josh Johnson.  He was posting terrific numbers before his season ended early, and it remains to be seen how he will hold up in 2011.  Veteran RH Javier Vasquez returns to the National League after signing a one-year deal.  More right-handers finish out the rotation, including strikeout pitcher Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad.  The new-look bullpen does return RH Leo Nunez at closer.

                Manager Edwin Rodriguez did a fine job after taking over at midseason, and his team should remain fairly competitive.

Projected finish: 3^rd

 

New York Mets

                The Mets have been a train wreck the past two seasons, with fourth-place finishes in 2009 and 2010.  Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Mets, and unfortunately for them, the team’s serious financial problems prevented them from making any notable moves this winter, which especially hurts after finishing 13^th in the NL in runs scored.  However, the injury bug bit the Mets hard in 2010, and rebounds could occur for several key players.

                Carlos Beltran moves to right field after two consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and the Mets hope his moving to a less demanding position will help him stay healthy.  SS Jose Reyes, like Beltran, has suffered through two straight seasons marred by injuries, and he still has potential as a top-flight shortstop if he stays on the field.  LF Jason Bay, last winter’s big signing, missed the rest of the season after a late-July concussion, and his numbers were very disappointing even before the injury.

                There is more certainty at other positions on the diamond.  3B David Wright bounced back nicely in 2010 after a slightly subpar 2009 and should continue to provide consistency on offense and defense.   Angel Pagan was terrific in his first season as a full-time starter, and he looks to remain successful as he moves to center field.  1B Ike Davis showed a knack for hitting big homeruns and making circus catches during his rookie campaign. 

                On the mound, ace LH Johan Santana is not expected to pitch until the second half after undergoing shoulder surgery in September, and his loss is a big blow to an otherwise below-average rotation.  RH Mike Pelfrey is a bit inconsistent but was still very good last season.  He will be relied on heavily early in 2011.  Fellow RH R.A. Dickey rode his knuckleball to an unexpected terrific 2010 campaign, but it is unsure if that success will continue.  LH Chris Capuano and RH Chris Young were signed this winter, and both have been effective in the past when healthy.  RH Francisco Rodriguez returns at closer after a wild 2010 season both on and off the field, and RH Bobby Parnell is ready to step in if Rodriguez struggles.

                New manager Terry Collins looks to make a move upward in the NL East, but he has his work cut out for him in 2011.

Projected finish: 4^th

 

Philadelphia Phillies     

                Consistency has been the name of the game for the Phillies recently.  Manager Charlie Manuel’s club has now won the NL East four consecutive seasons, and won the World Series in 2008.  And considering the splash they made this winter, a fifth straight trip to the playoffs is now expected in Philadelphia.  The team shocked the baseball world with the signing of LH Cliff Lee, who pitched for the team in 2009 when they lost in the World Series. 

                The money to sign Lee came from the team not resigning RF Jayson Werth, who signed with Washington.  Despite losing Werth, this is still a very solid offense that has had some trouble staying healthy.  2B Chase Utley’s health is a major concern, as a knee injury has left his status this season in doubt.  His steady bat is sorely needed in the number 3 spot in the lineup.  SS Jimmy Rollins has also battled injuries the last three seasons.  1B Ryan Howard remains the team’s primary source of power, but his numbers declined in 2010 and his power is even more important without Werth. 

                CF Shane Victorino is always a sparkplug on offense, defense, and on the basepaths.  LF Raul Ibanez is 38 but still continues to be a solid hitter for the Phillies.  In right field, there are a couple of candidates to replace Werth.  Top prospect Domonic Brown was a serious option but will miss the start of the season after suffering a broken hand.  This means that Ben Francisco will begin as the everyday right fielder until Brown is healthy. 

                The starting rotation has very high expectations, and understandably so, as it is a talented bunch.  Ultracompetitive RH Roy Halladay is arguably the best and most consistent pitcher in the game today.  Lee likely slots in as the number 2 starter, and veteran RH Roy Oswalt and LH Cole Hamels, the 2008 World Series MVP, follow them in the rotation.  Any of those four pitchers could be aces on numerous major league staffs.  Closer Brad Lidge still has very good stuff, and RH Ryan Madson serves as an excellent setup man. 

                Manuel has to be excited about his club in 2011, as the addition of Lee gives them a fantastic rotation and makes them a World Series contender once again.  Look for the streak of division titles to continue provided everyone stays healthy.

Projected finish: 1^st

Washington Nationals

                2010 was another tough year in the nation’s capital, as the Nationals suffered their fifth straight sub-.500 season.  Despite their losing record, the team was determined to make a splash in the offseason.  They made an attempt to reach out to Cliff Lee, but nothing ever surfaced there.  Finally, they opened up the checkbook and gave former Phillies OF Jayson Werth a 7-year $126 million deal.  The team received heavy criticism for the amount of money invested in Werth.

                Despite the criticism, Werth is a very good player who will add some much needed leadership and production to the middle of the order.  One player who will especially enjoy having Werth in the lineup is Ryan Zimmerman, an elite third baseman both in the batter’s box and on defense, as he is arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game.  The Nationals also signed 1B Adam LaRoche this winter, who provides a solid power bat from the left side and good defense. 

SS Ian Desmond did a fine job in his first full season, but he still needs to improve defensively and produce even more at the plate in 2011.  CF Nyjer Morgan had a down season where he saw a decrease in batting average and an increase in games missed due to suspension.  Uber-prospect Bryce Harper will likely not play in the bigs in 2011 despite turning heads in spring training, so the Nationals will rely on old veterans, journeymen, and unproven young guys to fill out the roster. 

The pitching staff is a mess.  Future star RH Stephen Strasburg had Tommy John surgery in September and will miss most, if not all, of 2011.  His absence severely weakens an already below-average rotation.  Veteran RH Livan Hernandez returns, and even though his velocity is steadily decreasing, he was fairly effective in 2010.   RH Jordan Zimmermann returned from Tommy John surgery to pitch late in the season, and the Nationals sorely need him to step up.  The team hopes to see RH Drew Storen take over as closer, as he has the stuff to succeed in the role.   

                Manager Jim Riggleman has an improved lineup to work with, but the pitching rotation will keep Washington from making a move forward in 2011.

Projected finish: 5^th

 

So to recap, here’s the projected finish for the NL East.

1.       Philadelphia

2.       Atlanta

3.       Florida

4.       New York

5.       Washington

Let us know if you agree or disagree.  In our next preview, we’ll look at the NL Central.  See you then.