Chicago Cubs
The Friendly Confines weren’t very friendly to the Cubs in 2010. The team saw everything from injuries to inconsistencies and trades to total meltdowns at Wrigley Field last season. It all proved to be too much to take for manager Lou Piniella, who resigned abruptly in August and handed to reins to Mike Quade. Quade led the team to a 24-13 run after taking over, and did such a good job that he was handed the permanent job over the winter.
The offense looks to rebound after a disappointing 2010 campaign. 3B Aramis Ramirez battled injuries in June but had a tremendous second half and looks to carry that success over. SS Starlin Castro emerged as a future star, hitting .300 as a 20-year old and playing terrific defense. 1B Carlos Pena signed a 1-year deal after struggling mightily with Tampa Bay last year, and he brings power from the left side.
The outfield is an interesting mix of excitement and frustration. CF Marlon Byrd was an All-Star last season and will hit third in 2011. Tyler Colvin hit 20 homers as a rookie but will probably split time in both left and right field. LF Alfonso Soriano’s offensive production continues to decrease, and RF Kosuke Fukudome has been a disappointment since coming over from Japan, but he should still lead off.
The starting rotation has the potential to be solid. RH Carlos Zambrano struggled at the beginning of the season and was demoted to the bullpen, then was suspended for a dugout meltdown in June. In the second half, he was dominant on the bump, and his effectiveness is crucial to the team’s success. Veteran RH Ryan Dempster turned in another consistent season in 2010. The Cubs acquired RH Matt Garza from Tampa Bay during the winter. He threw a no-hitter in July and should be ever better now that he is in the National League. Randy Wells and Carlos Silva are the leading candidates to finish out the rotation. The bullpen is anchored by RH Carlos Marmol, who has made significant strides with his control, and RH Kerry Wood, who returns to Chicago where he spent the first ten seasons of his career.
Quade looks to move the Cubs back toward contention in 2011, but it may take some time in an improved division.
Projected finish: 4th
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds put together a fantastic season in 2010, winning the division title with 91 wins and reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1995. The offense led the National League with 790 runs scored, 1515 hits, and 188 homers, and the pitching staff was solid but not spectacular. Despite getting swept in the Division Series by the Phillies (including being no-hit by Roy Halladay), the Reds have some momentum in the NL Central going into 2011 and look to repeat on top.
1B Joey Votto was a deserving winner of the NL MVP Award. All he did was take a leap to superstardom, finish second in the league with a .324 batting average, and finish third in the league with 37 homers and 113 RBI’s. 2B Brandon Phillips had another solid campaign in 2010, and should continue to hit homers and steal bases. 3B Scott Rolen found the fountain of youth and put together his finest season in four years in 2010. He also won his eighth Gold Glove Award.
The outfield is anchored by 23-year old RF Jay Bruce, who swatted 25 homeruns in 2010 and seems poised for a breakout season. CF Drew Stubbs held his own in his first full season, hitting 22 homers and stealing 30 bases. He moves to the top of the lineup where the Reds hope he cuts down on his strikeouts. Jonny Gomes returns in left field, but he could lose time to Chris Heisey and Fred Lewis.
The pitching rotation has plenty of arms to choose from. RH Bronson Arroyo had another solid season in 2010. RH Edinson Volquez returned nicely from Tommy John surgery and should be ready to return to form. Fellow RH Johnny Cueto is looking to become an ace, and he continues to improve. The staff will be filled out by some combination of lefty Travis Wood and right-handers Homer Bailey and Mike Leake.
In the bullpen, RH Francisco Cordero continues to pile up saves even though he rarely makes it look easy. He will receive plenty of competition from flame-throwing LH Aroldis Chapman, who took the baseball world by storm after his late-season call-up due to his tremendous stuff.
Manager Dusty Baker has the talent to remain atop the NL Central, and a deep playoff run is definitely within reach.
Projected finish: 1st
Houston Astros
The 2010 season was a tale of two seasons for the Astros. The team limped into the All-Star break 17 games under .500, but proceeded to go 30-23 after the break. So despite finishing 76-86 overall and finishing in 5th place, the Astros entered the winter with reason to be optimistic about the 2011 season.
Unfortunately for the Astros, the offense, which finished next to last in the NL in runs scored, is still below average. They will experience their first full season without former standout Lance Berkman, who was traded in July and signed with division rival St. Louis this winter. RF Hunter Pence will be counted on to carry the offense, as he has proven to be a very consistent hitter. CF Michael Bourn won a Gold Glove in 2010 and provides serious speed to the leadoff spot. LF Carlos Lee experienced a numbers decline and continues to regress defensively, but the Astros’ severe lack of power makes a bounce back season for Lee crucial.
The team is high on 1B Brett Wallace, who struggled a bit in his rookie season but shows promise at the plate. 3B Chris Johnson did a terrific job during the second half after being called up, but must prove he can succeed over a full season. Veteran Bill Hall was signed to serve as a utility player but could earn everyday at-bats eventually.
The pitching staff was quietly solid last season. RH Brett Myers had an outstanding season in his first year in Houston, but he has been inconsistent over his career, so he still has something to prove. LH Wandy Rodriguez struggled early but finished strong and will be a good source for strikeouts. RH Bud Norris is the hardest thrower in the rotation but struggles with consistency. LH J.A. Happ, on the other hand, doesn’t throw very hard but continues to get people out. RH Brandon Lyon did a solid job in 2010 and will serve as the closer again.
Manager Brad Mills deserves some credit for the way his team played in the second half of 2010, and he deserves even more credit if he can get the Astros into contention this season.
Projected finish: 5th
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers underwent their second consecutive sub .500 season in 2010, so this winter, GM Doug Melvin took matters into his own hands to get things back on track. He hired Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke as manager, then acquired Kansas City ace RH Zack Greinke without giving up a fortune. The Brewers are going for it all in 2011, which could be the last season for star 1B Prince Fielder in Milwaukee.
Fielder is in a contract year and is looking for big money this winter, and Milwaukee may not be able to afford him. He is still extremely dangerous, and though his offensive numbers were a bit down in 2010, he still led the majors with 114 walks. The lineup is full of tough outs. LF Ryan Braun remains a consistent source of batting average and power hitting in front of Fielder. RF Corey Hart had a monster season in 2010 and the Brewers would love to see him hit 31 homeruns again. 2B Rickie Weeks blasted 29 homers as the leadoff hitter and finally stayed healthy for a full season. 3B Casey McGehee drove in 104 runs with all the productive players hitting in front of him. The offense has the potential to put up big numbers and provide plenty of support for the pitching staff.
The pitching staff received major upgrades this winter, including Greinke, the AL Cy Young in 2009. He could see an improvement in his numbers with the move to the National League. Also moving to the National League is RH Shaun Marcum, who was acquired from Toronto. He had a terrific 2010 season despite missing 2009 after having Tommy John surgery. These two newcomers join fellow RH Yovani Gallardo atop the rotation. Gallardo struck out at least 200 batters for the second consecutive season in 2010 and has the stuff to do so again.
In the bullpen, RH John Axford came from out of nowhere to seize the closer’s job and performed very well. RH Takashi Saito was brought in as insurance in case Axford does not replicate his success in 2010.
Roenicke takes over a club that was built for a playoff run in 2011. Expect the Brewers to remain in the division race and the Wild Card hunt all season long.
Projected finish: 2nd
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have to improve at some point, right? The last time Pittsburgh fans saw a winning baseball team was in 1992 when Barry Bonds was manning left field. 2010 was the fourth consecutive season that the Pirates’ win total decreased from the season before. Manager John Russell was fired during the offseason and former Colorado manager Clint Hurdle will replace him. It was a typical Pirates winter as the team brought in some complementary players but made no major moves.
The lineup contains a mix of exciting young players and some average veterans. CF Andrew McCutchen has All-Star potential with his deadly combination of speed and power in the third spot in the lineup. 3B Pedro Alvarez will hit cleanup behind McCutchen. He showed serious power in his first season in the bigs, but needs to cut down on his strikeouts and improve defensively.
LF Jose Tabata runs well and is expected to hit leadoff. 2B Neil Walker learned the position on the fly with the Pirates, and he is a switch-hitter with some power. Other than Tabata, all three players were drafted by the Pirates and provide the team with some exciting homegrown talent.
Steady veteran Lyle Overbay was signed to play first base. Right field will be split between Garrett Jones, who has big lefty power, and former Brave Matt Diaz, who kills left-handed pitching.
The pitching staff won’t exactly strike the fear into the hearts of hitters in the NL. LH Paul Maholm is steady but unspectacular. RH Kevin Correia comes over from San Diego and is also unspectacular. RH James McDonald showed promise after being acquired from the Dodgers, and RH Ross Ohlendorf pitched well early in 2010 despite receiving little run support. The bullpen lacks quality options as well. RH Joel Hanrahan is the favorite to close games, but RH Evan Meek was outstanding in 2010 and will step in should Hanrahan struggle.
Hurdle had success in Colorado and will get every chance to work with Pittsburgh’s young talent. Even though 2011 may be another rough season, the future finally seems to be looking bright for the Pirates.
Projected finish: 6th
St. Louis Cardinals
Despite another solid season in St. Louis, the Cardinals missed the playoffs in 2010, leaving them determined to get back to their fairly familiar spot atop the NL Central. It was an interesting offseason for the Cardinals. 1B Albert Pujols couldn’t agree to a contract extension during the winter and enters a contract year. Then, ace RH Adam Wainwright was ruled out for the season after an elbow injury. The Cardinals need to push both occurrences aside quickly in order to succeed.
Pujols is the face of the franchise, and letting him walk would be devastating, as he is unquestionably the best player in baseball. In all ten of his seasons in St. Louis, he has hit .300, hit at least 30 homers and driven in at least 100 runs. He is joined in the middle of the order by LF Matt Holliday, as consistent a player as you will find in baseball. Veteran Lance Berkman was signed to play right field, which will be interesting since he has been injury prone and has played mostly first base recently.
CF Colby Rasmus has star potential but needs to play every day to reach it, as he has struggled against left-handed pitching. 3B David Freese and new SS Ryan Theriot are solid complementary players. C Yadier Molina is still the best throwing catcher in baseball and continues to improve offensively.
The pitching rotation takes a massive hit without Wainwright, who won 20 games with a 2.42 ERA in 2010. Veteran RH Chris Carpenter is remarkably consistent and should have no problem handling the role of the staff ace. LH Jaime Garcia had a fantastic rookie season and will be counted on even more heavily in 2011. RH Jake Westbrook is a solid mid-rotation starter, but RH Kyle Lohse needs drastic improvement to keep his job. RH Kyle McClellan is the favorite for the fifth-starter role.
RH Ryan Franklin is the closer and isn’t the most reliable guy out there, but has held onto the job nonetheless. He could receive competition from hard-throwing RH Jason Motte, who continues to improve.
Manager Tony La Russa saw his odds of winning the division decrease heavily with the loss of Wainwright, but the Cardinals are still much too talented to be counted out.
Projected finish: 3rd
So to recap, here is the projected finish for the NL Central.
1. Cincinnati
2. Milwaukee
3. St. Louis
4. Chicago
5. Houston
6. Pittsburgh
Give us your feedback and tell us if you agree or disagree. Next time we wrap up our division previews and take a look at the NL West. See you then.
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