Week Two Recap

Welcome back to the Big Fly.  It’s finally starting to sink in that baseball is back on our television sets, and we’re quickly taking notice of some players and teams who have caught our eye.  Here’s a recap of who’s looking good and who wishes it was still spring training through Week 2 of the 2011 season.

Heating Up

Texas Rangers

·         The Rangers have continued their hot streak to kick off 2011.  They are off to a 9-3 start, including a 6-0 record at the Ballpark in Arlington.  Everything isn’t stellar in Texas now, however, as star OF Josh Hamilton suffered a broken right arm on Tuesday and is expected to miss six-eight weeks.  This is a huge blow to one of baseball’s most powerful offenses.  Players such as Nelson Cruz and Michael Young will have to stay hot, and Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre need to heat up for this offense to not miss a beat.

AL Central underdogs

·         We had a tough time during the predictions for this division deciding who would come in last between the Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals.  For now, they’re making us look foolish.  The Tribe reeled off an eight-game winning streak after starting off 0-2, and they didn’t need Pedro Cerrano or Rick Vaughn to do so.  The pesky Royals continue to swing the bat well, with outfielders Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francoeur, and Alex Gordon all hitting above .280.

Prince Fielder

·         In the postseason award predictions, we mentioned Fielder as a potential MVP candidate due to 2011 being his walk year.  He has started off red-hot in his attempt to earn a massive contract this winter.  Through 11 games, he is hitting .385 with three homers and a 1.185 OPS.

Dan Haren

·         Through 4 appearances, including one emergency relief stint, Haren is 3-0 with an 0.73 ERA and an 0.53 WHIP.  In his last start on Tuesday, he stifled the red-hot Indians by throwing a one-hit shutout with only two walks and eight strikeouts.

Honorable Mention: Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Starlin Castro, Gio Gonzalez

Ice Cold

Boston Red Sox

·         Who owns the worst record in baseball through the first two weeks of action?  That would be the winners of the offseason sweepstakes.  The offense is hitting just .230 so far, with 2B Dustin Pedroia the only regular starter swinging a consistent bat so far.  Carl Crawford continues to press and is hitting just .152 with a putrid .204 OBP.  On the bright side, Josh Beckett threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees on Sunday, a big step forward for the rotation.  Daisuke Matsuzaka is a huge question mark with two straight horrible starts.

Minnesota Twins offense

·         For a team that was predicted to win the AL Central again, the Twins’ bats are currently as cold as the weather in the Twin Cities.  The team has scored just 33 runs in 11 games, is 29^th in the majors in OBP and last in slugging percentage.  Jason Kubel and Denard Span are the only regulars over .300, and offensive stalwarts Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are both between .220 and .240.  The pitching hasn’t been great either, but scoring three runs a game won’t bring many wins to Target Field.

Albert Pujols

·         Don’t panic Cardinals fans.  This is probably the only time you’ll see The Machine’s name in this section.  In his defense, his primary protection, Matt Holliday, has missed time with an appendectomy.   But nobody expected Pujols to have a lower slugging percentage than Ryan Theriot at any point this season.  He’ll come around sooner rather than later.

John Lackey

·         It’s never a good thing when giving up six earned runs in five innings brings your ERA down, but that happened to Lackey on Friday, and he lucked out a win as well.  But the Red Sox desperately need the fiery right-hander to become more consistent.  He is scheduled to start again on Tuesday against Oakland.

Dishonorable Mention: Anyone who’s pitched at Chase Field, Braves’ offense, Vernon Wells, Francisco Liriano

Weekend series to watch

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees

o   Texas has been arguably the best team so far in 2011, while the Yankees haven’t blown anybody away as of yet.  Sunday night’s game will be a good one to watch.  Texas starts RH Alexi Ogando, who hasn’t given up a run in his first 13 innings, while the Yankees send CC Sabathia to the mound. 

That’s all for the Week 2 recap.  Let us know what you think about what you’ve seen so far.  We’ll be back next week to look around the majors. See you then.

Week One Recap

Welcome back to The Big Fly.  The first week of the season is in the books, and already we’ve seen some interesting developments.  Let’s recap what we saw in week one of the Major League Baseball season.

Early favorites struggling

                If you remember, The Big Fly picked a Red Sox-Giants matchup in the World Series.  Both teams are struggling out of the gate in 2011, as the Giants lost three of four games to the Dodgers, while the Red Sox have lost their first five games. 

Out by the bay, the Giants have gotten solid pitching led by right-handers Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, but the offense has been inconsistent.  Some good news for the defending champs, however, is that 3B Pablo Sandoval has swung a very good bat after winning his battle with the bulge this offseason.

The Red Sox got swept convincingly over the weekend by the Texas Rangers (more on them in a second).  All five members of the starting rotation were hit hard in their first start, and the offense hasn’t been much better.  LF Carl Crawford was demoted to seventh in the lineup on Sunday, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury and 3B Kevin Youkilis have gotten off to slow starts as well.

We’re not panicking yet about our World Series pick, because both these teams are much too talented to be struggling for long.

“Cellar-dwellers” start out hot

                Raise your hand if you picked the Orioles, Royals, or the Pirates to win the division.  Our hands are not raised.  But we can still acknowledge that these three teams have turned some heads during the opening week of action. 

The Orioles have been the biggest surprise, winning their first four games, including a three-game sweep of division rival Tampa Bay, while only giving up one run in each of those four games.  They’ve done all this without ace LH Brian Matusz, who is out for at least three weeks with a back injury.  Rookie LH Zach Britton jumped into the rotation and had a solid start in his debut, and he and the rest of the rotation will need to step up and pitch well in April.

The Royals have shown an early knack for winning late, with three walk-off wins to their credit already.  So far, DH Billy Butler has started off swinging a good bat, which is not surprising, but LF Alex Gordon has been a pleasant surprise so far, hitting .379 through the first week and showing the promise that made him the number two overall pick in 2005. 

The Pirates have unexpectedly gotten good pitching to start the 2011 season.  Veteran RH Kevin Correia has provided two wins and a 1.37 ERA, and LH Paul Maholm threw 6 2/3 shutout innings in his first start.  Timely hitting from young guns such as CF Andrew McCutchen, LF Jose Tabata, and 2B Neil Walker have propelled the Pirates underrated offense.

Rangers on a mission

              As you read earlier, the Red Sox struggled over the weekend.  They have the defending AL champions to thank.  The Texas Rangers are 6-0 to start the season, and they’ve done it by playing longball, with 13 homeruns already in the first six games. 

Seven of those homers have come from two players.  RF Nelson Cruz homered in his first four games, and staying healthy could be the only thing keeping him from superstar status.  2B Ian Kinsler has three homers and became the first player in major league history to hit a leadoff homer in his team’s first two games of the season.

Despite a somewhat sluggish start from 3B Adrian Beltre, the Ranger offense is clicking early, and the pitching has been very good as well.  This is a dangerous ballclub that will be in the thick of things all season long.

Weekend series to watch

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

o   The Yankees have seen 1B Mark Teixeira go against his norm and start the season swinging a hot bat, and 3B Alex Rodriguez is starting off nicely also.  Friday’s game will be huge for both teams, as both teams will start their struggling number two starters.  Phil Hughes for New York will match up with John Lackey for Boston.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

o   The top two NL East teams from 2010 will face off in Atlanta.  Friday night will see LH Cliff Lee take the hill for the Phillies against Braves’ RH Tim Hudson.  The Braves’ offense has struggled so far and spoiled some good pitching efforts, while the Phillies have done everything well en route to a 4-1 start.

That wraps up our recap of week one in the Major League Baseball season.  Be sure to let us know your opinions about what you’ve seen so far and what you’re looking forward to.  We’ll be back next week to look around the majors once again.  See you then.

AL East Preview

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have had a rough go of it recently.  They haven’t had a winning season since 1997, and unfortunately for them, the AL East isn’t the easiest division to take a step forward in.  But give them credit; they’re making every effort to improve, especially on offense, where they finished next to last in the AL in runs scored. 

Their biggest offensive addition came late when Vladimir Guerrero signed a one-year deal.  He rejuvenated his career with Texas last year and will be the primary designated hitter.   The Orioles also signed steady veteran Derrek Lee to play first base, and added SS J.J. Hardy and 3B Mark Reynolds in trades.  Hardy has struggled with injuries the past couple seasons and is looking to bounce back, while Reynolds provides serious right-handed power but also has a propensity to strike out.  The Orioles possess a talented outfield, as LF Luke Scott provides a power bat from the left side, CF Adam Jones has back-to-back solid seasons under his belt and RF Nick Markakis is a doubles machine who looks to improve his homerun totals.

The pitching staff is still a question mark.  LH Brian Matusz looks ready to take a big step forward in his second full season and could become a legitimate ace in the future.  RH Jeremy Guthrie has been a solid starter the past four years, and newly acquired righty Justin Duchscherer could make an impact in the rotation if healthy.  Koji Uehara took over the closer role during the second half and did a good job, but he will be challenged for the role by big righty Kevin Gregg. 

The Orioles seemed to show signs of life once Buck Showalter took over as manager in late July.  There is some potential here, but in this stacked division, 2011 probably won’t be the year the Orioles challenge the others.

Projected finish: 5^th

Boston Red Sox

What a difference an offseason makes.  The Red Sox struggled with injuries all last season, and the lineup showed a complete lack of continuity, but still managed to score the second most runs in the AL.  It’s a big deal to add one All-Star to your starting lineup during the winter, but Boston managed to pick up two All-Stars to add serious depth. 

Carl Crawford is one of the most exciting players in baseball, and he left division rival Tampa Bay to come to Boston with a $142 million contract.  He’ll step into left field and hit near the top of the lineup.  Adrian Gonzalez was acquired in a trade from San Diego, where he quietly became one of the game’s best first basemen.  His left-handed power will stand out in hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  Adrian Beltre left this winter to sign with Texas, and Kevin Youkilis will slide from first base to third base to replace him.  If the Red Sox can get full seasons from Youkilis, 2B Dustin Pedroia, and CF Jacoby Ellsbury, and DH David Ortiz proves he can still mash, this balanced lineup will put up a ton of runs once again.

  The starting rotation is in good shape at the top, with LH Jon Lester emerging as an ace and RH Clay Buchholz putting together an outstanding 2010 campaign.  RH Josh Beckett suffered a back injury and struggled when he did pitch, and if he bounces back, Boston has another ace on the mound.  Better seasons from fellow right-handers John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka would also be a big boost, as Lackey was a slight disappointment in his first year with Boston and Matsuzaka has suffered some struggles since his 18-3 season in 2008.  

RH Jonathan Papelbon was shaky at times as the closer last season, but still has the job, with a pair of right-handers, Daniel Bard and newly acquired Bobby Jenks, ready to step in if needed. 

All in all, manager Terry Francona has to be extremely excited about his bunch, as their offseason pickups put them in World Series contention.

Projected finish: 1^st

New York Yankees

You probably forgot about these guys this winter.  This wasn’t your typical Yankees offseason where hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on free agents.  Top targets Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford signed elsewhere, and left the team scrambling to find other players.

 The lineup, which didn’t need much tinkering to begin with, remains strong.  SS Derek Jeter had an uncharacteristically down year which brought about questions of decline, and the Yankees need him to regain his form at the top of the order.  The middle of the lineup is still a force, with 1B Mark Teixeira and 3B Alex Rodriguez continuing to put up big numbers and 2B Robinson Cano emerging as the best second baseman in the game.  The outfield is a nice balance of speed and power.  LF Brett Gardner is one of the fastest runners in the league, RF Nick Swisher is a switch hitter who launched 29 homers in 2010 and Curtis Granderson has power and covers a ton of ground in center field.  Jorge Posada moves from catcher to DH, and Russell Martin was signed to take over at catcher, with stud prospect Jesus Montero waiting in the wings to catch or DH if needed.

The pitching staff took a hit when steady veteran Andy Pettitte recently retired.  LH CC Sabathia is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and RH Phil Hughes stepped up to win 18 games in 2010.  After that, question marks remain. Righty A.J. Burnett struggled mightily last year and has not lived up to the $82.5 million contract he signed before the 2009 season.  Despite this, he still has electric stuff and a return to old form would be a huge boost to the rotation, which is rounded out by unproven arms.

 In the bullpen, RH Mariano Rivera continues to dominate hitters at 41 years old and has shown little signs of aging, and the Yankees added All-Star closer Rafael Soriano to serve as a potentially dominant right-handed setup man.  Joe Girardi still has a formidable club to manage, and if the back of the rotation steps up, the Yankees will still contend to win the division.

Projected finish: 2^nd

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays put together a nice three-season run, reaching the World Series in 2008 and winning the division in 2010, but this season doesn’t look like it will be as kind.  Being a small-market team left them no chance of resigning star LF Carl Crawford, who signed with Boston, and led to them trading RH starter Matt Garza and not resigning 1B Carlos Pena, who both ended up with the Chicago Cubs.  The result: this club will look quite different than it has the past three seasons.  

One key lineup piece remains in 3B Evan Longoria, who has quickly become a star in his first three seasons.  B.J. Upton returns with his terrific power/speed combination, and if he cuts down on his strikeouts he will re-emerge as one of the league’s best center fielders.  The offense added two aging veterans in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, who will each split time between left field and DH.  Both players disappointed last season and are in the decline of their careers, but each should still provide some help offensively. 

Losing Garza hurts the starting rotation, but the Rays have enough depth to survive the move. LH David Price was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award in 2010, and at age 25, he has many more All-Star caliber seasons ahead of him as the ace of this staff.  RH James Shields has posted two consecutive subpar seasons, but he set a career high in strikeouts in 2010, so a bounce back year is definitely possible.  Rookie righty Jeremy Hellickson steps into Garza’s old rotation slot and proved in a brief late season call-up that he is ready to pitch in the majors.  The bullpen is extremely unproven after Rafael Soriano signed with the Yankees, and it is unsure who will close games. 

Joe Maddon has done wonders since he took over in Tampa Bay, but if he can keep this team at the top of the division again, he deserves even more praise.

Projected finish: 4^th

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays quietly had a solid 2010 season, winning 85 games, but still finished in fourth place in this loaded division.  The Rogers Centre was especially kind to the Blue Jays, a homer-happy team that led the majors by a long shot with a whopping 257 homeruns.  31 of those came from longtime center fielder Vernon Wells, who was traded to the Los Angeles Angels along with his massive contract.  

The offense is still powered by Jose Bautista, however, who came out of nowhere to lead the majors with 54 homeruns.  He will hit in the middle of the lineup and could spend time at third base and in the outfield.  Look out for bounce back seasons from 2B Aaron Hill and DH Adam Lind, who still slugged 26 and 23 homers respectively in down offensive years. 

OF Travis Snider possesses some power from the left side, and the team added a righty power bat in the Wells trade in OF Juan Rivera.  Rajai Davis will start in center field after being acquired from Oakland, and his speed adds a new dimension to the offense. 

The pitching staff did not miss a beat in 2010 even after Roy Halladay was traded to Philadelphia.  There is no true ace, but the rotation is full of young, quality arms, both left-handed and right-handed.  LH Ricky Romero is slowly emerging into a very good pitcher, while RH Brandon Morrow piled up strikeouts and showed signs of dominance in the second half. Brett Cecil, another lefty, quietly won 15 games, and much-hyped rookie Kyle Drabek adds another right-handed option to the rotation. 

In the bullpen, the Blue Jays have options at closer, although for now, RH Frank Francisco appears to be the favorite.  He served as a setup man for Texas in 2010 but he has closing experience.  Fellow right-handers and newcomers Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch also have closed before and provide quality depth. 

New manager John Farrell knows pitching and has a good staff to work with.  This team could surprise some people in 2011 but a jump into the top two of the division is unlikely.

Projected finish: 3^rd

So to recap, here’s the projected finish for the AL East.

1. Boston

2. New York

3. Toronto

4. Tampa Bay

5. Baltimore

If you agree, that’s great.  If not, let me know.  Feedback is a good thing.  We’ll be back next week with a preview of the AL Central.  See you then.