Mar 13, 2011

NL East Preview

Atlanta Braves
                The 2010 season found the Braves back in the playoffs for the first time since 2005.  The team fell to the Giants, the eventual World Series winners, in the Division Series.  Despite this, the Braves had a successful season and are expecting to contend once again.  One big difference: longtime manager Bobby Cox stepped down and handed the reins to former Florida manager Fredi Gonzalez.  The Braves also finally acquired the power-hitting righty bat they had sought for some time.
                2B Dan Uggla comes in from Florida in exchange for one of last season’s heroes in Omar Infante.  He brings some major juice from the right side of the plate and could hit cleanup.  Martin Prado moves to left field to make room for Uggla, and he has quietly become one of the more underrated players in baseball.  C Brian McCann remains rock solid at the plate, and RF Jason Heyward was in the Rookie of the Year race all season despite battling a thumb injury. 
For the Braves to compete in 2011, however, they have to answer some offensive questions.  First, longtime 3B Chipper Jones has to stay healthy.  He was having a terrific second half before suffering a knee injury in August.  Also, the team will learn if rookie 1B Freddie Freeman can handle playing every day.  The team is excited about his hitting ability and his defense.  Finally, CF Nate McLouth needs to bounce back in a big way after a horrendous 2010 season.  He could lose at-bats to former top prospect Jordan Schafer if he struggles again.
The pitching staff will once again be strong.  The rotation is heavy on right-handers, led by veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, who remain effective despite being in their mid-30’s.  Tommy Hanson has two terrific full seasons under his belt and could emerge as an ace in 2011, while Jair Jurrjens has been solid when healthy.  After Billy Wagner’s retirement, the closer job could go to LH Jonny Venters, who was dominant as a rookie in 2010, or RH Craig Kimbrel, who showed serious potential late in the season but needs to improve his control.
                Gonzalez is expected to be a similar personality to Cox, and that should help ease the transition at manager.  He inherits a very good team who will again push for the postseason.
Projected finish: 2nd

 
Florida Marlins
                The 2010 season in Florida wasn’t lacking for entertainment.  Manager Fredi Gonzalez was fired in June not long after benching star SS Hanley Ramirez for a lack of hustle.  OF Chris Coghlan was lost for the season in July when he injured his knee in a post-game celebration.  Then, 2B Dan Uggla was traded to division rival Atlanta after the season ended.  Despite this, the Marlins finished a game under .500 last year and hope to improve in 2011.
                Ramirez returns at shortstop, and despite having his hustle questioned, nobody questions his offensive production.  He should remain at or near the top of shortstops in baseball.  1B Gaby Sanchez had a fine rookie season and will be a major cog in the offense again.  Coghlan moves to center field and will likely lead off.  Omar Infante was acquired from Atlanta in the Uggla trade, and he likely will be the everyday second baseman.  John Buck had a fine 2010 season with Toronto and is the new catcher. 
                Flanking Coghlan in the outfield corners are two young, exciting players.  RF Mike Stanton has enormous power potential, as shown by his 22 homeruns in 100 games in 2010.  If he cuts down on his strikeouts, he could be a monster offensively.  LF Logan Morrison is widely recognized as an advanced hitter for his age.  The continued progress of these two young players will be vital to the Marlins’ success.
                The success of the pitching staff heavily relies on the right shoulder of ace Josh Johnson.  He was posting terrific numbers before his season ended early, and it remains to be seen how he will hold up in 2011.  Veteran RH Javier Vasquez returns to the National League after signing a one-year deal.  More right-handers finish out the rotation, including strikeout pitcher Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad.  The new-look bullpen does return RH Leo Nunez at closer.
                Manager Edwin Rodriguez did a fine job after taking over at midseason, and his team should remain fairly competitive.
Projected finish: 3rd
 

New York Mets
                The Mets have been a train wreck the past two seasons, with fourth-place finishes in 2009 and 2010.  Injuries and inconsistency have plagued the Mets, and unfortunately for them, the team’s serious financial problems prevented them from making any notable moves this winter, which especially hurts after finishing 13th in the NL in runs scored.  However, the injury bug bit the Mets hard in 2010, and rebounds could occur for several key players.
                Carlos Beltran moves to right field after two consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and the Mets hope his moving to a less demanding position will help him stay healthy.  SS Jose Reyes, like Beltran, has suffered through two straight seasons marred by injuries, and he still has potential as a top-flight shortstop if he stays on the field.  LF Jason Bay, last winter’s big signing, missed the rest of the season after a late-July concussion, and his numbers were very disappointing even before the injury.
                There is more certainty at other positions on the diamond.  3B David Wright bounced back nicely in 2010 after a slightly subpar 2009 and should continue to provide consistency on offense and defense.   Angel Pagan was terrific in his first season as a full-time starter, and he looks to remain successful as he moves to center field.  1B Ike Davis showed a knack for hitting big homeruns and making circus catches during his rookie campaign. 
                On the mound, ace LH Johan Santana is not expected to pitch until the second half after undergoing shoulder surgery in September, and his loss is a big blow to an otherwise below-average rotation.  RH Mike Pelfrey is a bit inconsistent but was still very good last season.  He will be relied on heavily early in 2011.  Fellow RH R.A. Dickey rode his knuckleball to an unexpected terrific 2010 campaign, but it is unsure if that success will continue.  LH Chris Capuano and RH Chris Young were signed this winter, and both have been effective in the past when healthy.  RH Francisco Rodriguez returns at closer after a wild 2010 season both on and off the field, and RH Bobby Parnell is ready to step in if Rodriguez struggles.
                New manager Terry Collins looks to make a move upward in the NL East, but he has his work cut out for him in 2011.
Projected finish: 4th
 

Philadelphia Phillies     
                Consistency has been the name of the game for the Phillies recently.  Manager Charlie Manuel’s club has now won the NL East four consecutive seasons, and won the World Series in 2008.  And considering the splash they made this winter, a fifth straight trip to the playoffs is now expected in Philadelphia.  The team shocked the baseball world with the signing of LH Cliff Lee, who pitched for the team in 2009 when they lost in the World Series. 
                The money to sign Lee came from the team not resigning RF Jayson Werth, who signed with Washington.  Despite losing Werth, this is still a very solid offense that has had some trouble staying healthy.  2B Chase Utley’s health is a major concern, as a knee injury has left his status this season in doubt.  His steady bat is sorely needed in the number 3 spot in the lineup.  SS Jimmy Rollins has also battled injuries the last three seasons.  1B Ryan Howard remains the team’s primary source of power, but his numbers declined in 2010 and his power is even more important without Werth. 
                CF Shane Victorino is always a sparkplug on offense, defense, and on the basepaths.  LF Raul Ibanez is 38 but still continues to be a solid hitter for the Phillies.  In right field, there are a couple of candidates to replace Werth.  Top prospect Domonic Brown was a serious option but will miss the start of the season after suffering a broken hand.  This means that Ben Francisco will begin as the everyday right fielder until Brown is healthy. 
                The starting rotation has very high expectations, and understandably so, as it is a talented bunch.  Ultracompetitive RH Roy Halladay is arguably the best and most consistent pitcher in the game today.  Lee likely slots in as the number 2 starter, and veteran RH Roy Oswalt and LH Cole Hamels, the 2008 World Series MVP, follow them in the rotation.  Any of those four pitchers could be aces on numerous major league staffs.  Closer Brad Lidge still has very good stuff, and RH Ryan Madson serves as an excellent setup man. 
                Manuel has to be excited about his club in 2011, as the addition of Lee gives them a fantastic rotation and makes them a World Series contender once again.  Look for the streak of division titles to continue provided everyone stays healthy.
Projected finish: 1st


Washington Nationals
                2010 was another tough year in the nation’s capital, as the Nationals suffered their fifth straight sub-.500 season.  Despite their losing record, the team was determined to make a splash in the offseason.  They made an attempt to reach out to Cliff Lee, but nothing ever surfaced there.  Finally, they opened up the checkbook and gave former Phillies OF Jayson Werth a 7-year $126 million deal.  The team received heavy criticism for the amount of money invested in Werth.
                Despite the criticism, Werth is a very good player who will add some much needed leadership and production to the middle of the order.  One player who will especially enjoy having Werth in the lineup is Ryan Zimmerman, an elite third baseman both in the batter’s box and on defense, as he is arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game.  The Nationals also signed 1B Adam LaRoche this winter, who provides a solid power bat from the left side and good defense. 
SS Ian Desmond did a fine job in his first full season, but he still needs to improve defensively and produce even more at the plate in 2011.  CF Nyjer Morgan had a down season where he saw a decrease in batting average and an increase in games missed due to suspension.  Uber-prospect Bryce Harper will likely not play in the bigs in 2011 despite turning heads in spring training, so the Nationals will rely on old veterans, journeymen, and unproven young guys to fill out the roster. 
The pitching staff is a mess.  Future star RH Stephen Strasburg had Tommy John surgery in September and will miss most, if not all, of 2011.  His absence severely weakens an already below-average rotation.  Veteran RH Livan Hernandez returns, and even though his velocity is steadily decreasing, he was fairly effective in 2010.   RH Jordan Zimmermann returned from Tommy John surgery to pitch late in the season, and the Nationals sorely need him to step up.  The team hopes to see RH Drew Storen take over as closer, as he has the stuff to succeed in the role.   
                Manager Jim Riggleman has an improved lineup to work with, but the pitching rotation will keep Washington from making a move forward in 2011.
Projected finish: 5th
 

So to recap, here’s the projected finish for the NL East.


1.       Philadelphia
2.       Atlanta
3.       Florida
4.       New York
5.       Washington

Let us know if you agree or disagree.  In our next preview, we’ll look at the NL Central.  See you then.

2 comments:

  1. I like the recap for the five teams of the East and the Baseball terminology.

    ReplyDelete